Silver rate today: White metal may touch $100/oz before sharp correction; experts warn of key risks

Silver prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) declined on Friday, tracking weakness in global markets as investors booked profits and concerns over US tariffs eased.

MCX silver prices traded lower by ₹1,139, or 0.39%, at ₹2,90,438 per kg, after touching a record high of ₹2,92,960 on Thursday. In the international market, spot silver price slipped 1.8% to $90.70 an ounce, though it remained on course for a weekly gain of over 13% after hitting an all-time high of $93.57 in the previous session.

The pullback in silver prices came after the US refrained from imposing import tariffs on critical minerals. While President Donald Trump stopped short of announcing duties, he did not rule out levies in the future, keeping some uncertainty alive in the market.

Despite the near-term correction, silver continues to draw support from its designation as a critical mineral due to its key role in solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics.

Analysts believe silver prices could see a sharp correction in the longer run. However, before that, the white metal may extend its rally towards the psychologically important $100 per ounce level, driven by a mix of fundamental and technical factors.

Can silver hit $100 per ounce?

Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Advisory, said lingering uncertainty over the legality of Trump’s global tariff policy is sustaining the risk premium in precious metals.

“Gold and silver prices have been supported by ongoing uncertainty around US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of sticky inflation. If tariffs continue, they are likely to push up consumer prices in the US, which would further support precious metals, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against inflation,” Kedia said.

What do technical indicators suggest?

On the technical front, silver prices have formed a rounding bottom pattern — a bullish reversal signal — indicating the start of a fresh uptrend, Kedia noted. A sustained breakout above key resistance levels could propel prices towards the $100 per ounce mark.

This upward momentum is likely to be supported by persistent geopolitical tensions, a global supply shortfall, and rising industrial demand, particularly from the clean energy sector.

However, Kedia cautioned that after hitting the $100 level, silver prices could witness a significant correction over the longer term.

Why could silver prices crash?

One of the key risks facing silver prices is substitution, according to Kedia.

Rising silver prices are squeezing solar panel manufacturers. Spot silver prices have more than tripled over the past year, sharply increasing production costs. The trace amount of silver used in solar cells now accounts for about 29% of the total cost of a panel, up from just 3.4% in 2023 and 14% last year, according to BloombergNEF. This comes at a time when losses across the solar industry continue to mount.

Substitution risk intensifies

In response, panel manufacturers are accelerating efforts to replace silver with cheaper alternatives such as copper.

Silver paste is a critical input used to form electrical contacts in solar panels. Manufacturers have consistently reduced silver usage to cut costs, with consumption averaging 8.96 milligrams per watt in 2025, down from 11.2 milligrams in 2024, according to BloombergNEF.

“These efforts to substitute base metals for silver are now accelerating. China’s Longi Green Energy Technology has already announced plans to begin replacing silver with base metals in its cells. This substitution risk is likely to weigh on silver prices going ahead,” Kedia said.

Other major players, including Jinko Solar and Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy, are also making similar shifts.

BCOM index rebalancing adds pressure

Another near-term risk stems from the 2026 Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rebalancing, which took place between January 8 and 15, 2026. The rebalancing process enforces a 15% cap per commodity and limits any single commodity group to 33% of the index.

With BCOM-linked assets under management of around $109 billion, passive funds tracking the index are required to rebalance their holdings, triggering significant buying and selling in commodity futures.

“Gold’s weight is set to fall from 20.4% to 14.9%, while silver’s weight could drop sharply from 9.6% to as low as 1.45–4%. This could result in nearly $14 billion of selling pressure, with silver alone facing up to $7.1 billion in futures sales,” Kedia said.

These mechanical sell-offs could trigger heightened volatility in silver prices over the near term, even as the broader bullish narrative remains intact.

Kiyosaki’s Warning

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has warned that silver prices may be nearing a peak and could see a sharp pullback before resuming a longer-term uptrend.

In a post on X, Kiyosaki urged investors to “be careful,” noting that the recent rally has drawn in speculative sellers who could trigger a correction. However, he reiterated his bullish outlook on silver, saying he would continue buying the metal even up to $100 an ounce, while remaining patient in the event of a market crash.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.