Will US–Venezuela tensions trigger another bull run in silver prices in the near term?

Silver prices are expected to gain traction in the near term as geopolitical tensions heat up following US attacks on Venezuela on Saturday. Experts believe this could lead to a supply shortage of the white metal, which is already in deficit, a factor that contributed to a 170% rally in MCX prices in 2025.

The United States carried out a “large-scale strike” against Venezuela early Saturday. The US also said that President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of the country following months of stepped-up pressure by Washington, PTI reported.

Hours after the audacious military operation that removed President Nicolás Maduro from power and took him out of the country, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States would run Venezuela, at least temporarily, and tap its vast oil reserves to sell to other nations, according to the report.

Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth, said, “The US–Venezuela conflict is expected to hit the global silver supply. Peru and Chad are among the world’s biggest silver suppliers, whose export routes include sea passages around Venezuela. Following the recent US attacks on Venezuela, silver exports are expected to be disrupted, leading to a rise in the demand–supply imbalance and potentially fueling silver prices in the near term.”

In the near term, Anuj expects COMEX silver prices to reach $78 per ounce, while MCX silver rates may soon touch ₹245,000 per kg.

Meanwhile, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that MCX silver futures advanced to around ₹236,316 per kg last week, extending the sharp rally amid tight global physical supply. He added that the price structure remains decisively bullish within a rising channel.

“Recent sessions have formed an inside-harami consolidation pattern, indicating controlled consolidation after a strong up-move. Strong support is placed in the ₹230,000– ₹223,000 range. A sustained hold above ₹240,000 could trigger an accelerated move toward ₹250,000– ₹260,000,” Ponmudi added.

Supply shortages and industrial demand fuel silver rally in 2025

Both gold and silver recorded their best year since 1979, with MCX silver gaining 170% in 2025. The rally was driven by its designation as a critical US mineral, ongoing supply shortages, and low inventories amid rising industrial and investment demand.

Global silver supply has failed to keep pace with demand for seven consecutive years, resulting in a structural market deficit, which is expected to continue for a sixth consecutive year in 2026.

Unlike gold, silver has extensive industrial applications, with solar panel manufacturing emerging as a major driver of consumption. At the same time, investment demand for silver—both in physical form and through exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—continues to rise, reflecting growing confidence in the metal’s investment appeal.

MCX gold also surged 76.5% in 2025, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, and rising ETF holdings.

Meanwhile, spot platinum posted a 126% surge in 2025, its best performance in 15 years, while spot palladium rallied 81%.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.