Bitcoin hits four-week high on US-Iran ceasefire hopes. Where is crypto headed?

US-Iran war: Bitcoin prices surged to a four-week high as risk assets rallied on optimism that the US could reach an agreement with Iran to resolve the conflict.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose to $74,901—its highest level since 17 March—before trimming gains to trade near $74,400. Smaller cryptocurrencies also moved higher, with Ether rising 5% to $2,370.

“Bitcoin has climbed toward the $74,000–$75,000 range, marking a four-week high as easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have supported a strong rebound in price. Optimism around renewed talks and signs of de-escalation have driven sentiment higher, with Bitcoin bouncing sharply from its recent dip near the $70,000 level,” said Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder&CEO, Pi42.

What's behind the rally?

The market moves came after Donald Trump said that Iran had approached his administration for possible peace talks, even as the US initiated a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Asian equities also advanced, driven by hopes that an agreement could help bring down oil prices and support economic growth.

After falling from its all-time high of $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range over the past two months. Still, it has outperformed many traditional assets since the US-Iran conflict began in late February. The token has gained over 10% since 27 February, while gold has dropped nearly 10%. The S&P 500 has remained largely unchanged during the same period.

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to move in line with riskier assets—a trend that appears to be continuing.

According to Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange, the move is also supported by institutional demand, over $1B in ETF inflows and continued accumulation by corporate players, with Strategy adding 14,000 BTC.

Bitcoin price outlook in the near term

Shekhar believes that Bitcoin continues to hold key support levels while attempting to build momentum near resistance. The ability to sustain above $70,000 and push toward $74,000 indicates underlying strength, even as the market remains sensitive to macro triggers.

He noted that quick recoveries on dips further suggest that long-term investors are accumulating during periods of uncertainty rather than exiting the market.

“A sustained move above the $74,000–$75,000 zone would be critical to confirm a breakout, as this level has repeatedly capped upside in recent weeks. From an investor’s perspective, the current setup suggests cautious optimism, with participants likely to turn more confident if Bitcoin manages to establish strength above this resistance range,” Shekhar said.

On the technical outlook, Sehgal said Bitcoin is testing a supply zone between $74,500 and $76,000. The structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows, but this zone is a key decision point. A move above $75,000 could open the door to $78,000, while a rejection could trigger a pullback toward the $71,000–$70,000 demand zone.

“Overall, structural strength is building, but the market remains in a transition phase, balancing institutional inflows with macro uncertainty and near-term resistance,” she added.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)

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