IPO GMPs: Fractal Analytics IPO vs Aye Finance IPO — what does grey market premium signal?

After a brief lull in the primary market, several IPOs are poised to hit Dalal Street over the next few months. Today (February 9), Fractal Analytics IPO and Aye Finance IPO have opened for bidding, though the interest in both offers appears to be low.

Analysts maintain a structurally negative outlook on the IPO market for 2026. They believe the market has lost tolerance for indiscipline; obvious PE dumping and aggressively exit-driven IPOs are no longer viable. Significant losses have been incurred over the previous cycle by both retail and institutional investors, leading to a shift in behaviour.

"SME IPOs, in particular, will struggle badly this year—many simply won’t survive sustained scrutiny. On the main board, issuers will face far tougher questions on business quality, cash flows, and valuation discipline. Pricing will be far more grounded than what we saw in recent years. 2026 is a year of consolidation, not celebration. Well-run companies with credible growth and sensible pricing will still get capital. Everything else risks falling off a cliff," said Mohit Gulati, CIO and managing partner of ITI Growth Opportunities Fund.

IPO GMPs

Let's take a look at the grey market premium (GMP) trends for the ongoing IPOs:

Aye Finance IPO GMP today was ₹0, which meant shares were trading at their issue price of ₹129 with no premium or discount in the grey market, according to investorgain.com.

Following the grey market activities over the past week, Aye Finance IPO GMP is trending downward and is anticipated to decrease further. The minimum GMP is ₹0.00, and the maximum is ₹5.

The ₹1,010-crore offering consists of a new equity issuance amounting to ₹710 crore and a ₹300 crore share sale by existing investors like Alpha Wave India, MAJ Invest Financial Inclusion Fund, CapitalG (affiliated with Alphabet), LGT Capital, and Vikram Jetley.

Aye Finance IPO price band has been set between ₹122 and ₹129 per equity share, with a face value of ₹2.

Fractal Analytics IPO GMP is ₹18. Considering the upper end of the IPO price band and the current premium in the grey market, the estimated listing price of Fractal Analytics shares is indicated as ₹918 apiece, which is 2% higher than the IPO price of ₹900.

Based on the grey market trends from the past seven sessions, the current GMP of ₹18 is indicating a downward trend. The minimum GMP recorded is ₹13.00, whereas the maximum GMP observed is ₹180.

The issue, valued at ₹2,834 crore, consists of a fresh issue of shares amounting to ₹1,023.5 crore, alongside an Offer-For-Sale (OFS) component worth ₹1,810.4 crore.

Fractal Analytics IPO opened for subscription on Monday, February 9, and closes on Wednesday, February 11. Fractal Analytics IPO price band has been fixed in the range of ₹857 to ₹900 per equity share of face value of Re 1.

IPO Review

As per Swastika Investmart, Aye Finance Limited is a non-banking financial institution (NBFC) that offers business loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The fundamentals look strong to the brokerage, with the company demonstrating consistent growth in both revenue and profits.

“The company suggests a P/E ratio of approximately 14x based on FY25 earnings, which is reasonably valued in comparison to some of its listed NBFC competitors. In summary, the IPO is a good fit for long-term investors who have confidence in the growth of MSME lending and possess a moderate risk tolerance for NBFC credit,” the brokerage opined.

SBICAP Securities noted that Fractal Analytics functions within a specialised area of Data Analytics, utilising AI that is developed through both internal research and development as well as external models. “The company maintains a strong presence in its four key industries, serving leading multinational corporations, with an average client relationship duration of over 8 years among its top ten clients. At the upper price band of ₹900, the issue is assessed at a FY25 P/E ratio of 78.9x based on the post-issue capitalisation,” the brokerage said.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.