Sensex, Nifty end in the red but off lows; banks, auto hit, metals shine

Indian equities recovered from their day's lows but still ended in the red on Wednesday, tracking global cues. Globally, stocks were under renewed pressure and oil spiked further on Wednesday, as Russia showed no signs of stopping its assault on Ukraine.

Sensex fell 778.38 points to end the day at 55,468.90, while Nifty was lower by 187.45 points at 16,606.45. 

Auto and bank stocks bled, while metals rallied. Nifty bank, financials, auto indices fell over 2% each, while metal index closed more than 4% higher. Broader markets also ended the day in the red, India VIX rose 2%.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may sharply hike prices of crude for Asia in April, trade sources said on Wednesday, with differentials for most grades hitting all-time highs as global supplies tighten over financing and shipping issues from sanctions on Russia.

The official selling price (OSP) for Saudi's flagship Arab Light crude may rise to a record of $4.50 a barrel, up $1.70, three of five refining sources told Reuters in a survey.

Another two respondents said the OSP could rise by $1.50 and $2.20 a barrel.

The sharp price hikes are tracking strong gains in Middle East benchmark Dubai last month which reached record levels as buyers faced limited options amid tight supplies.

Benchmark grades Dubai, Oman and Murban continued to surge hitting fresh all-time highs on Tuesday, the first day of trading this month. Global oil price Brent jumped more than 4% on Wednesday to its highest since July 2014.

Global stock markets slid Wednesday and oil prices surged more than $7 per barrel as Russian forces stepped up attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Frankfurt, Shanghai, Tokyo and Paris declined as President Vladimir Putin’s invasion fed fears of global economic turmoil. London opened higher.

The war is adding to worries about global economic growth as the Federal Reserve and other central banks gear up to fight surging inflation by raising interest rates.

"The conspiracy of geopolitical uncertainty and stagflation-type impulses is a brutal shock," Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank said in a report.

Investors were waiting for more clues about possible rate hikes when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday before Congress.

In early trading, the DAX in Frankfurt fell 1.4% to 13,715.13 and the CAC 40 in Paris sank 1.2% to 6,322.17. The FTSE 100 in London gained 0.2% to 7,346.15.

The aluminium industry has sought the government's help for immediate resumption of coal supplies to the sector to ensure the survival of the domestic industry.

In a letter to the Prime Minister’s Office, the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) has said that for the past seven months, the non-power sector across the country, of which aluminum companies are a key part, has been plagued by a protracted coal shortage putting the sector in a near-calamitous situation that could also give a severe blow to the ongoing V-shaped recovery of the Indian economy.

As the most widely used non-ferrous metal globally and a critical input for several core industries in India, any disruptions in the sector’s production is expected to have a negative effect across the country’s industrial landscape.

South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co said on Wednesday it planned to invest about 95.5 trillion won ($79.21 billion) through 2030, including about 19.4 trillion won ($16.10 billion) towards electric vehicle (EV) related businesses.

Hyundai Motor, which together with affiliate Kia Corp is among the world's top 10 biggest automakers by sales, targets to achieve a 7% market share in the global EV market by 2030, with an annual sales target of 1.87 million vehicles, the automaker said during a virtual investor day.

The Seoul-based automaker said it aimed to achieve an operating profit margin of 10% or higher in EV business by 2030.

"Hyundai is successfully accelerating its transition to electrification and becoming a global leader in EVs despite a challenging business environment caused by the global chip shortage and ongoing pandemic," Hyundai Motor Chief Executive Officer Jaehoon Chang said.

Oil prices surged on Wednesday as supply disruption fears mounted following hefty sanctions on Russian banks amid the intensifying Ukraine conflict, while traders scrambled to seek alternative oil sources in an already tight market.

Brent crude futures rose by as much as $8 and touched as high as $113.02 a barrel, the highest since June 2014, before easing to $111.75.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $7.24, or 7%, to $110.67 a barrel, after earlier hitting the highest since August 2013.

The backwardation in the Brent futures contract, when prompt prices exceed later dated supply, surged to the highest ever according to data going back to 2004. The premium of the first-month Brent future to the sixth-month contract rose to as much as $18.55 a barrel.

Volumes of fast-moving consumer goods fell 2.6% year-on-year in the December quarter. The decline came after five quarters of positive volume growth, with demand for packaged goods dipping sharply in India’s villages, according to industry data released by NielsenIQ.

Rising inflation led to three consecutive quarters of double-digit price increases, resulting in consumption slowdown in urban markets and consumption de-growth in rural markets, the market researcher said in its Q4 2021 FMCG Snapshot released on Wednesday.

A more “accentuated” slowdown was reported in rural markets, with volumes down 4.8% during the quarter under review. 

Rural markets had led demand for FMCG companies a few months into the onset of the pandemic.

"Categories like staples or OTC have seen high price increase in last two quarters, leading to larger price growth in rural markets and, hence impacting the volumes,” the researcher said in its report.

Outgoing Sebi chief Ajay Tyagi on Wednesday said the capital markets regulator acted as per its remit and understanding on the NSE case, and denied any "dilution" of orders in the matter.

Tyagi, who left as the chief of the regulator after a five-year term, said other law enforcement agencies are also looking into the matter.

"Till now, all the facts and findings in the public domain are based on Sebi's findings disclosed in its orders, and we should wait for the investigation of other agencies as well," Tyagi said.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is cooperating with other agencies and sharing the information sought with them, he added.

Speaking to reporters after handing over the charge to his successor, Madhabi Puri Buch, Tyagi said the NSE case pertains to events between 2010-2015, and Sebi started investigations under him in the "right earnest".

"We came out with orders within our remit and understanding," he said, stressing that no one can say that the regulator "diluted" the orders.

The comments from the chief come a fortnight after an order, which led to a furore, as the then NSE chief was seen as taking orders from a mystic Yogi residing in the Himalayas to run the largest stock exchange.

Tyagi said the recent order was delayed, mentioning that there was the COVID pandemic in between. He, however, added that the delay was not intentional.

He said Sebi focused on the main case, pointing to its April 2019 order in the co-location case.

Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the ₹9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past USD 100 a barrel.

International crude oil prices shot above USD 110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions.

The basket of crude oil India buys rose above USD 102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry. This compares to an average of USD 81.5 per barrel price of the Indian basket of crude oil at the time of freezing of petrol and diesel prices in early November last year.

"With state elections getting over next week, we expect daily fuel price hikes to restart across both gasoline and diesel," JP Morgan said in a report.

The seventh and final phase of polling for the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly is on February 7 and the counting of votes slated for March 10.

State-owned fuel retailers Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are making a loss of ₹5.7 a litre on petrol and diesel. This is without taking into account their normal margin of ₹2.5 per litre.

The brokerage said for oil marketing companies to revert to normalised marketing margins, retail prices need to increase by ₹9 a litre or 10 per cent.

As the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia drive a relentless surge in oil prices, equities in India and South Korea are looking more vulnerable.

With Brent crude crossing $110 a barrel, that clouds the outlook for two of Asia’s larger oil importers -- which are also home to the region’s worst-performing currencies this year. While stocks in Mumbai and Seoul have already taken hits from concerns over Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes and a related technology selloff, analysts see both as more susceptible to risk-off sentiment.

Rising costs could squeeze companies’ profits at a time Asia’s earnings growth is lagging global peers. Higher oil prices “are particularly negative for India, Korea and Taiwan, which are large oil importers,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Jonathan Garner wrote in a note.

Down more than 9%, South Korea’s Kospi Index is the worst performer among major Asian benchmarks this year. India’s S&P BSE Sensex has lost 5% while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down about 6%.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates an 80-100 basis points upside risk to a 5.9% average inflation forecast for India in the year starting April if commodity prices remain high. The governor of the Bank of Korea last week warned that the war could further fuel inflation that’s projected to stay above 3%.

ADD - Akzo Nobel; HOLD - Asian Paints, Indigo Paints, Kansai Nerolac; REDUCE - Berger Paints

Paint dealers indicated that consumer offtake has remained soft even in Jan- Feb’22 due to the impact of price hike, examination season and election in local markets. That's the insight from our conversations with dealers in Chennai. They told us, (1) trade inventory is largely back to normal levels; it had increased before the price hikes in Nov-Dec’21 and (2) prices are again expected to increase in Apr’22. Prices of wood coatings are already hiked by 8% in Mar’22. In case of price hike in Apr’22, there will be again inventory uploading in Mar’22, (3) while paint prices are up 22% YoY, labour rates are up 10% YoY which indicates ~14% inflation for consumers, (4) same price for all colours offer of JSW Paints is well accepted by consumers. Generally dark shades cost more than light shades; red and orange colours are more expensive than blue and green and (5) dealers are hopeful of demand revival in Q1FY23 due to favourable base of Q1FY22 which was impacted by covid wave II.

Our neutral stance on paint industry (and stocks) is intact - a function of our inability and unwillingness to subscribe to BAAP (buy at any price) as believed by some market participants.

The country's largest car maker Maruti Suzuki India reported a marginal drop in total wholesales at 1,64,056 units in February. The company had sold 1,64,469 units in February 2021.

Last month, the company's domestic sales slipped 8.46% on year to 1,40,035 units, it added.

Indian bond yields edged higher while the rupee weakened on Wednesday, tracking a sharp rise in global crude oil prices that threatens to push up domestic inflation and widen the country's current account deficit.

Oil prices rose as sanctions on Russian banks following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine hampered trade finance for crude shipments and some traders opted to avoid Russian supplies in an already tight market. 

The benchmark 10-year bond yield edged up to 6.80%, up 3 basis points from its previous close on Monday. It touched 6.81% in early trade, the highest since Feb. 9. Markets were closed on Tuesday for a local holiday.

Traders said if there are no more debt sales in this fiscal year, yields are likely to trade in a 6.75% to 6.85% range depending on the movement in global crude and the evolving geopolitical situation.

India imports more than two-thirds of its oil requirements and rising crude will push up imported inflation while also widening the country's current account deficit.

The partially convertible rupee was trading at 75.63/64 per dollar, weaker compared to its previous close of 75.34. It dropped to a low of 75.7725, its weakest since Dec. 20.

Asian equities suffered a second successive month of outflows in February as investors jettisoned riskier assets due to rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine and on fears of aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

According to Refinitiv data, cross-border investors sold Asian equities worth a net $6.9 billion in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India in the last month, after disposing $8.4 billion in January.

Indian equities faced its fifth consecutive outflow in February, as foreigners dumped $4.74 billion worth of the country's stocks last month. Analysts said rising crude oil prices remain a big threat to the country's economic recovery, as India is one of the biggest oil importers in the world.

Tata Steel will set up a 'world class' facility to produce medical material. According to a stock exchange filing, Tata Steel Advanced Materials (TSAML), an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, has invested in a bio-ceramics startup, Ceramat Private Limited.

TSAML has executed a Share Purchase cum Shareholders’ Agreement for acquisition of a 90% equity stake in Ceramat Private Limited.

India's factory activity growth accelerated in February as the threat from a third COVID-19 wave eased, while some softening of price pressures meant demand and business expectations strengthened, a private survey showed.

However, the survey was conducted before Russia invaded Ukraine, which led to an immediate spike in oil prices. India is the world's third-largest importer of oil so the crisis will add to inflationary pressure and hurt consumer sentiment.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by IHS Markit from Feb. 10-22, improved to 54.9 in February from 54.0 in January.

February's reading exceeded expectations for 54.3 in a Reuters poll and was above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction for an eighth month.

"For now, India's manufacturing sector has weathered the storm of the Omicron variant, undoubtedly supported by the relatively high inoculation rate," noted Shreeya Patel, an economist at IHS Markit.

Markets technical outlook

On Monday, Nifty entirely recouped initial losses seen after a gap-down opening (16658-16482) and closed near day's high. As a result, daily price action formed a sizable bull candle with small lower shadow, highlighting elevated buying demand that emerged from 52 weeks EMA placed around 16400

As per change of polarity concept earlier support of 16800 is now acting as an immediate resistance for the Nifty over past three sessions. Going ahead, only a decisive close above 16800 along with cool off in VIX and crude oil prices will add fuel to the ongoing pullback rally towards 17200 as it is the 61.8% retracement of February decline (17795-16203), placed at 17186. 

Meanwhile, Monday’s low will be the key monitorable in coming sessions as breach below Monday’s low of 16356 on a closing basis would lead to extended correction towards 16200

In a post-Covid world, conscious investing has gained lot of traction among investors. In fact, in 2021, at a global platform, India made a commitment to reach net carbon zero by 2070. With the environment, social and governance (ESG) theme fast catching-up, analysts at Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd have outlined key considerations for investors and picked stocks from five sectors to bet on this theme. 

(Read on)

Exports fell 3% on year to 2.03 lakh units in February, while two-wheeler sales declined 16% to 2.79. Three-wheeler sales slipped 14% to 36,683 units last month.

Gold prices declined, but remained near a 13-month high on fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could turn more brutal, aiding demand for haven assets as investors weigh the potential fallout and sanctions. 

Spot gold retreated 0.5% to $1,935.58 an ounce on Wednesday, after rising 1.9% on Tuesday and 6.2% in February.

Financial transactions of Indian banks with Russian lenders have come to an abrupt halt after the expulsion of some Russian banks from the Swift international financial messaging network, two bankers said.

Most international transactions are settled in dollars and involve US banks, which cannot transact with Russian entities.

Enforced by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) through its list of sanctioned entities, the Swift sanctions essentially mean banks cannot initiate transactions involving lenders or entities on the list.

Indian banks are hoping the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will work out an alternative payment mechanism as was done when Iran sanctions were imposed in 2012 and again in 2018.

“We cannot unilaterally decide to stop payments because of the sanctions. However, following the sanctions, US banks cannot execute these transactions. We are hoping that later this week, there will be some decision by the government since Russia is an important trade partner,” said one of the two bankers cited above, both of whom spoke on condition of anonymity. (Read here)

Wall Street’s biggest banks are sticking by their calls for as many as seven Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year even as traders and some of their peers ratchet back expectations.

Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. still predict the U.S. central bank will raise its benchmark to 2% by year-end from the current range of zero to 0.25%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees the rate reaching 2% in early 2023. Their main argument: surging inflation will compel the Fed to act.

Sure the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions weighing on the country may curb global growth, but they will also fuel further consumer-prices gains by pushing up raw material prices even more.

“The underlying rationale for normalization hasn’t yet changed,” said Praveen Korapathy, a strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York. “If all we get is a small hit to growth and still elevated inflation, it makes the Fed’s trade-off worse, but I don’t think it would get them to sit on their hands.”

Rates traders see things differently. They have slashed the odds of Fed tightening in recent days as the sanctions on Russia have weighed on the global-growth outlook. Money markets have pared pricing for a rate hike in March to a quarter point from a half-point prior to the invasion, and they now predict the central bank’s key rate will peak at 1.7%, well below the Fed’s long-term estimate of 2.5%.

TD Securities Inc. is among those revising its view. The company now sees a smaller Fed hike this month than it earlier envisaged, and it’s shifting some of its anticipated rate increases to next year.

Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL), the only listed depository in India, said it has achieved the milestone of opening 6 crore active demat accounts.

At an event organised on this occasion, Ananta Barua, whole-time member of Securities and Exchange Board of India, highlighted the importance of investor awareness.

“Dematerialisation was a product of the difficulties caused on account of physical shares. Access to the Indian securities market has become safe, convenient and easy and the new milestone is a representation of the same…the markets were reaching unprecedented new heights and that was possible only due to the ease of business being provided by the MIIs such as eCAS, eNomination, etc. which helped the capacity building of the investors and the whole financials system was benefitted,” he said

Passenger and commercial vehicle wholesale dispatches picked up in February, with most manufacturers reporting an improvement in semiconductor supplies and healthy domestic and export demand. Wholesale dispatches for two-wheelers and tractors, however, were lower due to muted domestic demand and a high base of last year.

Maruti Suzuki’s passenger vehicle sales were marginally lower at 164,056 units last month from 164,469 units in February 2021. But, while domestic sales were impacted by chip shortages, the automaker more than doubled its share of exports in February to 24,021 units.

Hyundai’s passenger vehicle sales fell 14% to 53,159 units, and exports declined 10%. Tata Motors and Mahindra and Mahindra, however, recorded double-digit growth in passenger car dispatches in February, with sales up by 47% and 80%, respectively, led by high demand for SUVs. (Read here)

The U.S. and other major economies have agreed on a coordinated release of oil stockpiles after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed crude above $100 a barrel.

The International Energy Agency, which represents key industrialized consumers, will deploy 60 million barrels from stockpiles around the world. Half of that amount will come from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with the rest from IEA members in Europe and Asia.

The IEA said it will continue to monitor energy markets and could recommend additional stockpile releases if need.

A release of 60 million barrels, while significant, only equates to less than two-thirds of global daily consumption of around 100 million barrels. The international release late last year included 50 million barrels from the U.S. but only relatively small contributions from other countries. While oil prices fell in the run-up, they actually rose when it was officially announced in late November.

Tata Sons Ltd is faced with a fresh crisis at Air India Ltd, with the airline’s newly appointed chief executive turning down the role before even taking charge.

Ilker Ayci, former chairman of Turkish Airlines, cited political controversies, in a statement, for declining the assignment. His decision leaves the new owner of Air India with the fresh challenge of hunting for a new leader of the recently privatized airline.

Known as a turnaround expert, Ayci’s appointment, announced soon after Tata Sons took over Air India in January, sparked hopes of fast recovery of the airline grappling with an ageing aircraft fleet, mounting debt and several legacy issues arising from its workers’ unions.

But just a fortnight into his appointment, Ayci declined to take up the role on Tuesday. His decision may hurt Tata’s ambition to quickly turn around Air India’s fortunes and help the company regain the market share it ceded to rivals. (Read here)

Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei is closely watching the regulatory changes in India, where it continues to remain one of the companies that are not under the trusted sources segment of telecom providers approved by the government, even as it invests in building the talent ecosystem in the Asia-Pacific markets. (Read here)