PremiumIndian indices on Tuesday snapped their 3-day winning run as both the Sensex and Nifty declined, tracking weak trends from Asian peers. A rise in Brent crude futures after the European Union agreed to slash oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022 also weighed on sentiment. Shares rose in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Shanghai, while it fell in Japan and Australia.
Indian indices on Tuesday closed lower, ending 3-day winning run, tracking mixed global trends, dragged by heavy losses in Sun Pharma, Kotak Bank, HDFC, and Titan.
The Sensex lost 359.33 points, or 0.64%, to close at 55,566.41, while Nifty50 declined 76.85 points to end at 16,584.55. Sectorally, realty and metal stocks made the biggest gains, while power, banks, and IT stocks struggled.
On the 30-stock index, the most gains were made by M&M, NTPC, PowerGrid, and TechM, among others, while Kotak Bank, Sun Pharma, and HDFC were among the biggest losers.
On Nifty50, ONGC, NTPC, and M&M made the most gains, while Kotak Bank, Sun Pharma and HDFC were among the biggest laggards.
Shares of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries plunged by over 4% in Tuesday's deals to ₹851 apiece on the BSE the drug firm's consolidated net loss stood at ₹2,277 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2022, mainly on account of a one-time exceptional loss.
After hitting a low of ₹50.35 on May 11, shares of Indian food delivery firm Zomato has extended their rebound. Shares rose 5% to ₹75, extending the 3-day gains to 25%. Analysts say that Zomato has witnessed a rise in investor interest post its Q4 earnings announcement.
Euro-zone inflation accelerated to a fresh all-time high, intensifying the debate at the European Central Bank about how rapidly to raise interest rates from record lows.
Consumer prices jumped 8.1% from a year earlier in May, exceeding the 7.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The acceleration was driven by food and energy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity prices soaring. A gauge that excludes volatile items like those rose 3.8%.
With rate hikes in full swing in the US and the UK, the ECB is preparing to lift borrowing costs for the first time in more than a decade to combat the 19-member currency bloc’s unprecedented price spike.
Here’s why shares of the country’s largest private sector power company has been in focus over the last month
On May 30, the Commerce Ministry tightened norms for obtaining registration certificates for wheat export in order to prevent fraudulent practices, such as the submission of false documents by shady traders. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) published guidelines to all of its regional authorities (RAs) on May 19, requiring rigorous adherence before issuing Registration Certificates (RCs) to qualifying exporters. The DGFT is issuing these instructions after receiving information from sources that some unscrupulous exporters are submitting false back dated L/Cs with dates of issuance on or before May 13, 2022, for issuance of RCs.
We remain positive on Sun’s long-term outlook considering strong India business, scale-up in specialty sales and focus on margin expansion through superior revenue mix and operational efficiency. However, recent rise in the stock price (~19% in 6 months) has partially factored in the near-term upside. Downgrade to ADD from Buy with a revised target price of Rs961/share.
We maintain ADD with a revised DCF-based target price of Rs1,065 (earlier: Rs1,006), implying 16x FY24E core earnings and discounted value of stake in various listed entities.
We like the focus towards (1) growth (store expansion, fortressing, higher emphasis on digital infra), (2) developing synergies with new brands (Hong’s Kitchen, Ekdum! and Popeyes) and (3) expanded organisational bandwidth. Investments on a strong fleet give it an edge over peers. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of Rs720.
Gold prices dipped on Tuesday as U.S. bond yields and the dollar firmed, with bullion facing a second straight monthly loss for the first time since March 2021. Higher U.S. 10-year Treasury yields lower the appeal of zero-yield gold, while a stronger dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,854.20 per ounce, as of 0738 GMT, bringing its monthly loss to 2.2% so far — its biggest decline since last September. U.S. gold futures were nearly flat at $1,858.00.
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday after the EU agreed to slash oil imports from Russia, fuelling worries of a tighter market already strained for supply amid rising demand ahead of peak U.S. and European summer driving season.
Brent crude for July, which expires on Tuesday, rose $2.19, or 1.8%, to $123.86 a barrel at 0650 GMT, after earlier rising to $124.10 - its highest since March 9. The more active August contract rose $2.25 to $119.85.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $119.12 a barrel, up $4.05, or 3.5%, from Friday's close. There was no settlement on Monday due to a U.S. public holiday.
Both benchmarks have posted daily gains since Wednesday.
While announcing its Q4FY22 earnings, drug firm Aurobindo Pharma said its board has recommended fourth interim dividend of 450% i.e ₹4.50 per equity share of Re 1/- each on the equity share capital of the company for the financial year 2021-22.
India's benchmark 10-year bond yield touched a three-week high in early trade on Tuesday, as global crude oil prices rose further raising concerns over the need for the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively to contain inflation.
The benchmark bond yield was trading at 7.46% by 0606 GMT, its highest since May 9.
Oil prices extended gains after the EU agreed to slash oil imports from Russia, fuelling worries of a tighter market already strained for supplies amid rising demand ahead of peak U.S. and European summer driving season.
"Crude is holding above $120 a barrel. It is likely to keep the upward pressure on domestic inflation, so expectations that inflation will start easing may not necessarily materialise," a senior trader at a foreign bank said.
India imports nearly 85% of its oil needs and high crude pushes up imported inflation. Traders will be looking at the GDP data due at 1200 GMT for near-term cues.
Asian shares clawed back earlier losses on Tuesday as signs that China's economic pain may be gradually abating amid easing COVID-19 curbs overshadowed broader investor concerns about a global inflation shock.
Also lifting sentiment in the region were details of Beijing's new policy support, which includes cash handouts for hiring graduates and support for internet companies' offshore listings.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.7%, reversing losses from earlier in the session and led by gains in China and Hong Kong.
Outside of China, however, things were mixed amid persistent worries about global inflation. Japan's Nikkei was flat. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, FTSE futures were unchanged and Euro STOXX 50 futures fell 0.2%.
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs998 | TP: Rs1,155
M&M’s revenue at ₹171bn increased 28/12% YoY/QoQ and surpassed our estimate by 5% on the back of strong recovery in auto volumes, better product mix and price hikes. Automotive business remains in limelight with 170k+ units of order book from four consecutivelly successful SUV launches. Scorpio-N (launch in Jun-22) is also expected to receive similar traction. However, semiconductor shortages continue to keep waiting periods at elevated levels (cancellation rate of ~10-15%). For the tractor industry, management guided single digit growth in FY23, on a weak base, as it seems to wait for signs of recovery in the rural markets.
We remain positive on M&M as (1) automotive segment will benefit from robust product pipeline, strong order book and supply issues easing out (2) strong demand for farm implements space with its leadership positioning and (3) better product mix, expected commodity softening and systematic price hikes will lead to margin improvements. Despite recent rally in the stock price, we expect stock to extend its performance on back of quality improvement in auto business and strong play on rural recovery. Maintain BUY with a SoTP-based TP of ₹1,155 (earlier ₹1,042).
Edelweiss Alternative & Quantitative Research has carried out a pre-emptive analysis of the Semi-Annual Index (SAIR) September 2022 Rejig for Nifty indices. The index provider will officially announce the list in the second half of August 2022.
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs144 | TP: Rs180
We increase our FY23/24E earnings by 11%/3% as we increase our crude oil realization by USD5/bbl to USD85/75/bbl, but also factor in higher cost. ONGC’s Q4 standalone EBIDTA was in line at Rs185.9bn (+16%Q/Q; PLe Rs189.1bn), while PAT of Rs88.6bn (+1%Q/Q PLe Rs99.6bn) was due to higher depreciation charges. Q4 consolidated EBIDTA stood at Rs271.3bn (+20%Q/Q) due to higher crude realization, while PAT was at Rs141.6bn (22%Q/Q). ONGC remains on a strong footing, as commodity prices stay at elevated levels. However, rising fuel marketing losses is a cause of concern, as the company might be forced to share some losses. We maintain ‘BUY’ rating with PT of Rs180 based on 3.5x EV/E FY23E (5x earlier).
For the past few days, the Indian Rupee has been trading in a tight range. This mute performance is likely to continue in the upcoming sessions as well on account of the persistent intervention by the RBI in the currency market which wants the Rupee to revolve in a narrow range for some time. Markets shall pay attention to the upcoming meeting help between the US Fed Chair and the US President. Post the meeting, we can expect some volatile moves based on the comments.
With a robust bidding pipeline in EPC and HAM projects along with railways and T&D, we believe GRIL is well-placed to capture growth opportunities in the sector. With a robust order book and proven execution prowess, we expect the company to post Revenues/EBITDA/PAT growth of 11%14/%/13% CAGR respectively over FY22-24E. We retain a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,765/share, implying an upside of 26% from the CMP.
PNCIL has an order book of ₹14,663 Cr (as of 31st Mar’22), indicating revenue visibility for the next 2-3 years. With a robust bidding pipeline in EPC and HAM projects along with water projects, we believe PNCIL is well-placed to capture growth opportunities in the sector moving forward. Given the company’s robust order book and better execution prowess, we expect PNCIL to post Revenues/EBITDA/PAT growth of 19%/18%/25% CAGR respectively over FY21-24E. We retain our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of ₹345/share, implying an upside of 39% from the CMP.
Concerns about the high restructured book and muted operating profits persist. However, with the FY22 loan growth at 10.2%, the loan growth outlook for FY23 looks improved. We believe higher restructuring amidst increasing competition remains a challenge for smaller banks such as KBL. With improving asset quality and management’s guidance for further improvement in G/NNPA, NIMs, slippages and an overall 15% growth in loan book, we believe KBL could command a better valuation. However, we would monitor the company’s performance closely to see if it achieves guided performance in a sustainable manner. We upgrade our rating to hold the stock with a target of ₹69/share (~0.3x FY24E ABV), implying an upside of 5% on the CMP.
The share of VRL Logistics is currently trading at a market price of ₹629.70, up 2.22 per cent from its previous close of ₹616.05. The stock has gained 1.61 per cent in the previous five trading days, but has lost around 3.55 per cent in the last week. The firm recorded total revenue of ₹671.7492 crores for the quarter ended March 31, 2022, up from ₹603.0213 crores in the year-ago quarter. The company generated net revenue of ₹2410.4654 crore in FY22, up from ₹1775.7873 crore in FY21.
Shares of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) continued to surge with the stock hitting a fresh record high of ₹1,033 apiece on the BSE in Tuesday's early deals even as benchmark Sensex slipped more than 300 points.
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday after the EU agreed to slash oil imports from Russia, fuelling worries of a tighter market already strained for supply amid rising demand ahead of peak U.S. and European summer driving season.
Brent crude for July, which expires on Tuesday, rose $1.13 to a fresh two-month top of $122.80 a barrel at 0359 GMT. The more active August contract rose $1.34 to $118.94.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $118.25 a barrel, up $3.18 from Friday's close. There was no settlement on Monday due to a U.S. public holiday.
Both benchmarks have posted daily gains since Wednesday.
European Union leaders agreed in principle to cut 90% of oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022, resolving a deadlock with Hungary over the bloc's toughest sanction yet on Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine three months ago.
Indian shares fell on Tuesday as investors refrained from placing big bets ahead of an economic growth data, while a rally in technology stocks lost steam and Sun Pharmaceutical fell after the company logged a loss for the March quarter.
The NSE Nifty 50 index was down 0.51% at 16,574.95, as of 0350 GMT, while the S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.66% to 55,550.33. Both indexes were set to snap three straight days of gains.
Asian stocks also lost ground and the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan snapped a two-day winning streak and dropped 0.2% after data showed German consumer prices increased at their fastest pace in half a century, heightening nerves about the pace and scale of looming interest rate hikes.
In domestic trading, Nifty's IT sub-index paused a three-day rally and dropped 1.2%.
Shares of Sun Pharma were the top losers in the Nifty 50 index after India's biggest pharmaceutical company logged a consolidated net loss after tax of 22.77 billion rupees ($293.27 million) for the March quarter, versus a profit of 8.94 billion rupees a year ago.
Market focus was on GDP data expected later in the day. India's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic likely stumbled again in the first quarter of this year primarily due to Omicron-related restrictions and rapid inflation, a Reuters poll last week showed.
The rupee slipped 13 paise to 77.67 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, weighed down by the surge in crude oil prices.
At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 77.65 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 77.67, registering a fall of 13 paise from the last close.
On Monday, the rupee settled at 77.54 against the US dollar.
The rupee opened weaker against the dollar this Tuesday, tracking a surge in crude oil prices, said Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.
Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.91 per cent to USD 122.78 per barrel.
Moreover, Asian and emerging market peers were trading weaker this morning and could weigh on sentiments, he noted.
Shares of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) plunged more than 2% in Tuesday's opening deals at ₹817 apiece on the BSE after the state-run insurance behemoth reported lower profit for the fourth quarter ending March 2022.
The initial public offering (IPO) of specialty chemicals company Aether Industries was subscribed 6.26 times on the final day of subscription, helped by a strong interest from institutional buyers. The share sale received bids for 5,85,34,586 shares against 93,56,193 shares on offer.
US markets were closed on Monday, on account of Memorial Day, designated as the official mourning day to honour the U.S. armed forces. Global stocks rallied due to relaxation of some Covid-19 curbs in China. On the economic front, data suggested that inflation is rising in major European economies. Germany’s annual inflation rate hit 8.7% this month, the fastest since 1973. In Spain, consumer prices rose 8.5% on the year, up from the 8.3% rate recorded in April.
Domestic equities started the week in green led by broad-based-buying. While possibly sharp interest rate hikes are expected by the FED in the months of June and July, investors remain optimistic on slow-down of monetary policy tightening. Nifty increased by 1.9%, while broader markets outperformed the main indices as Nifty Mid-Cap and Nifty-Small Cap rose by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively. All sectoral indices ended in green. Nifty Reality gained the most at 4.1%, followed by Nifty IT and Nifty Media which were up 3.9% and 3.2% respectively. Meanwhile, surging COVID cases and Russia-Ukraine war which has now surpassed 3 months, continue to remain in investors’ radar.
RBI is looking at another phase of coordinated action between fiscal and monetary authorities. More rate hikes are on the way. And all eyes are on RBI and the US Fed, which are meeting in June, as the economic landscape goes through a furious churn. The Indian government has rolled out a string of measures to keep prices in control by reducing petrol and diesel prices. The borrowing plan for FY23 remains firmly on course despite an inflationary environment, reduced revenue after the fuel duty cut and a higher subsidy outgo for food and fertilizer. The primary focus in the coming weeks will be on central banks’ policy measures to stabilize inflation. Changes in oil prices and amendments to import and export duties might play a role in assessing the market’s trajectory. However, given the risk of hard landing due to sharper rate hikes, we would recommend adding the quality large cap names, which also provide a margin of safety. However, the continued selling by FIIs and plunging rupee are likely to have economic implications in the near term. Globally, the Russia-Ukraine crisis and supply chain disruptions continue to impact global and Indian equities. The markets are likely to see gap down opening, SGX nifty is down 66 points compared to yesterday’s spot Nifty closing. Asian Markets are trading in green, Nikkei is up 0.1% while Heng Seng is up 0.2%.
Indian economy probably grew slower as soaring prices and the subsequent hit to consumer spending and investments are likely to further dampen the economy, as RBI faces a finely balanced struggle to tame inflation via rate hikes without hurting economic growth.
Bonds in almost every corner of the $63 trillion global debt market are bouncing back as investors begin to see value once again in fixed-income assets.
Soaring prices and the subsequent hit to consumer spending and investments are likely to further dampen India's economy, as the central bank faces a finely balanced struggle to tame inflation via rate hikes without hurting economic growth, economists said.
Asia's third-largest economy probably grew 4.0% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, a Reuters poll showed last week. That would be the slowest pace in a year, following 5.4% growth in the previous quarter.
Forecasts for the data, due at 1200 GMT on Tuesday, ranged from 2.8% to 5.5% in the May 23-26 survey of 46 economists.
The economy's near-term prospects have been darkened by a spike in retail inflation, which hit an eight-year high of 7.8% in April. The surge in energy and commodity prices following the Ukraine crisis is also exerting a drag on economic activity.
Gold prices dropped on Tuesday, as a higher dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on demand for greenback-priced bullion, which is set for a second straight monthly loss for the first time since March 2021.
* Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,847.50 per ounce, as of 0057 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.4% at $1,850.40.
* Gold prices are down about 2.6% so far this month, their most since September.
* The dollar index rose, making bullion more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
* Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields leaped on Tuesday after bond markets in the United States were closed in the previous session for the Memorial Day holiday, lowering the appeal of zero-yield gold.
Indian house prices are set to accelerate this year to a pace not seen in half a decade, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who also warned that higher interest rates will crimp affordability, especially for first-time buyers.
A lack of demand has kept India's property market relatively quiet during the pandemic compared with other world markets that rocketed higher as households scrambled to buy more living space. Those markets are now cooling.
But the release of pent-up demand in India, as most employees return to workplaces amid improving vaccination rates and fewer COVID-19 cases, has stirred the Asian country's housing market along with a return of large institutional investors.
Bitcoin rose 7.93 % to $31,780.51 at 2200 GMT on Monday, up $2,334.8 from its previous close.
The world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency is up 25.1% from the year's low of $25,401.05 on May 12.
Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, rose 9.8 % to $1,989.38 on Monday, adding $177.54 to its previous close.
Oil headed for the longest run of monthly gains in more than a decade as European Union leaders agreed to pursue a partial ban on imports of crude from Russia to increase pressure on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
Global benchmark Brent topped $122 a barrel, hitting a two-month high. The latest round of EU sanctions would forbid buying oil from Russia delivered by sea but includes a temporary exemption for pipelines, European Council President Charles Michel said. The package also proposes a ban on insurance related to shipping oil to third countries, people familiar with the deal said.
Stocks in Asia fell Tuesday and Treasuries sold off across the curve as investors remain cautious about whether central banks can raise interest rates to rein in inflation without derailing growth. Oil gained after the European Union backed a push to ban some Russian oil.
Equities in Japan, Korea and Australia inched down while Hong Kong futures fell. US contracts opened higher in the first day of trading after the Memorial Day weekend. Yields on two-year notes jumped 10 basis points to 2.58%, while benchmark 10-year yields rise 10 basis points to 2.84%.
Crude oil advanced to around $117 a barrel after EU leaders agreed to pursue a partial ban on Russian oil in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
Higher energy and food costs are keeping upward pressure on prices globally and squeezing consumers. European bonds tumbled after German inflation hit a record, adding to pressure on central bank policy makers to tame rising prices. The dollar rose slightly.
In China, purchasing managers indexes for May are likely to show service and manufacturing activity continuing to shrink amid Covid lockdowns, despite progress in containing the virus and resumed production at some Shanghai plants, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Global stocks are on track to end the month with modest gains amid skepticism about whether the market is near a trough and as volatility stays elevated. Fears that central bank rate hikes will induce a recession, stubbornly high inflation and uncertainty around how China will boost its flailing economy are keeping investors watchful.
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