Adani Green Energy Ltd’s shares have risen more than 45% so far in 2026, also hitting a new 52-week high of ₹1,544.80 apiece on Tuesday. Investors have given the company a thumbs-up for its robust capacity additions, execution, and strong financial performance.
Adani Green is adding capacity faster: 5.1GW in FY26, up from 3.3GW in FY25. This increased its total renewable energy (RE) to 19.3GW at FY26-end, and it plans to take it to 50GW by 2030. The ongoing pace of additions suggests Adani Green could well achieve its targets. However, massive capital expenditure (capex) undertaken has led to net debt surging to over ₹91,000 crore at FY26-end, from about ₹64,500 crore in FY25. So, investors must closely monitor the company’s balance sheet.
In the March quarter (Q4FY26) earnings call, management stated that it can commission 7-8GW of capacity each year, but is currently limiting it to 4.5-5GW due to transmission constraints. A large portion of capacity additions is at Khavda, Gujarat, which accounted for 9.4GW of capacity at FY26-end, and is expected to reach 30GW by 2030. Strong solar radiation and high wind speeds mean Khavda’s potential capacity utilization factors are relatively high at about 33% for solar and 35%+ for wind. This should help further improve the overall FY26 capacity utilization factor of about 26%, and in turn, boost earnings.
BESS push
Besides, Adani Green is also focusing on battery energy storage system (BESS), adding 1.37GWh in March, and 2GWh in May. This is expected to reach 10 GW by the end of FY27. BESS helps store excess power generated during peak solar hours, when prices fall to less than ₹1 per unit, and dispatch during peak demand hours, when prices go up to ₹10 per unit. BESS is expected to generate an annual Ebitda of ₹250 crore per GWh, against a total investment of ₹1,500 crore per GWh, as per the management. While spot sales accounted for 27% of total in FY26, the company targets to sell the entire quantity through PPAs by 2030.
The significant capacity addition is keeping the Street upbeat on Adani Green’s earnings trajectory. “We estimate Adani Green Energy would deliver an Ebitda CAGR of 34%-plus over FY26–28E, factoring in addition of about 5GW each in FY27E and FY28E, which has upside potential from storage capacity addition,” noted JM Financial Institutional Securities in its Q4FY26 results review report.
Yes, Adani Green’s capex is expected to remain high, from ₹30,400 crore in FY26 to ₹40,000 crore in FY27. The net debt-to-Ebitda rose to 8.5 times by FY26-end, against 7.3x a year ago. This is projected to remain elevated at 7.2x till FY28, as per JM Financial, and any delay in project execution or fall in realization could have a significant impact on cashflows. Also, while its net debt-to-equity ratio improved in FY26, thanks to fund infusion from the promoter group, it is expected to remain high at about 3.5x till FY28. Rating agencies have a mixed view on the company, with Fitch assigning ‘BBB-’ to one of its debts in May.
While the net debt-to-Ebitda compares favourably with NTPC Green Energy’s 9.9x, it is much higher than 0.75x for 2025, for global major, Orsted.
Meanwhile, “(Adani Green’s) valuation premium to JSW Energy, which has renewable and thermal assets, has compressed from 264% in January 2023 to 62% currently,” noted a 6 June Jefferies India report. Still, Adani Green’s stock trades at an enterprise value of about 23 times FY27 estimates Ebitda, as per Bloomberg, which looks demanding. Investors should closely monitor whether the project commissioning timeline is maintained over the next couple of years.