Anant Raj stock: Data-centre dream or valuation trap?
Anant Raj targets ₹9,000 crore in data-centre revenues by FY32, but AI-driven competition and cash-flow pressures could test its ambitions.
Anant Raj Ltd has been a notable player in the NCR real estate market since the 1970s, developing everything from residential complexes and affordable housing to hotels and IT parks. In 2021, the company expanded into data centres—a move that could shape its next phase of growth.
The management aims to scale up its data-centre revenues to ₹1,200 crore by FY27, and a massive ₹9,000 crore by FY32. The hype is such that Motilal Oswal Financial Services has pegged its target price at ₹807 apiece—25% above current levels. Notably, 54% of this valuation is ascribed to its data-centre business, even though the segment reportedly contributes less than 10% to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) today.
There are clear positives. First, a strong government push: talks include allowing data-centre developers to claim input tax credit (ITC) and extending a 20-year tax exemption. Second, Anant Raj plans to expand its data-centre capacity from 28 MW to 63 MW by FY27, and 307 MW by FY32.
Third, the company aims to shift its focus from co-location to infrastructure as a service (IaaS). Fourth, it has deleveraged significantly over the years—from ₹1,494 crore in FY21 to just ₹50 crore in FY25.
With ready and cost-effective land, a technical partnership with Orange Business, and an established clientele, all the ingredients of a successful data-centre business appear to be in place.
Rising risks and cash flow strains
But risks also abound. Data centres are closely tied with artificial intelligence (AI), a dynamic landscape—technologically as well as competitively. In January, China’s sleek and low-cost AI model, DeepSeek, had triggered widespread panic by questioning the massive capital already consumed by data-intensive AI models. Anant Raj’s stock dropped over 34% in just two days. Competition is set to intensify as incumbents expand and new players enter the market.
In this evolving landscape, Anant Raj has shifted from fundraising to expansion through internal accruals. The result: some cloud-service scale-up plans have been pushed out by six months, and bottom-line and cash flows could also come under stress. The launch of new real estate projects and a government-focused client profile could also add to the company’s cash-flow burden. Motilal Oswal expects Anant Raj to record cash outflows of ₹300 crore in FY26.
While the stock has risen an impressive 80% from 52-week lows of ₹376.15, it remains 20% down so far in 2025.
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