Shares of AWL Agri Business (formerly Adani Wilmar) are down 36% since 21 November after Adani group’s exit. The stock hit a 52-week low of ₹171.19 on 16 March, amid muted financials for the nine months ended December (9MFY26), which added to the pressure.
But the worst may be over. Its March quarter (Q4FY26) business update reveals sales volumes grew by 13% year-on-year. This compares with just 1% volume growth in 9MFY26, pulling down FY26 growth to 5%. Nuvama Institutional Equities estimates AWL’s Q4 Ebitda growth at 20% year-on-year, vis-à-vis a similar drop in 9MFY26.
Edible oil, which contributed 80% of AWL’s FY26 revenue, led Q4 show, clocking 17% volume growth aided by lower imports from neighbouring countries. It saw a modest 2% rise in 9MFY26. Value growth in Q4 was higher at 21%, helped by ₹4-5 price hike per litre taken by the edible oil industry in March.
Cost advantage
AWL benefits from access to the global linkages of its Singapore-based parent, Wilmar International. Also, ports-based processing units reduce logistics cost, helping them maintain about 20% share in the domestic market in a low-margin business. Edible oil Ebit margin fell 219 basis points year-on-year in 9MFY26 to 1.7% due to higher raw material costs.
Industry essentials, used as an ingredient in producing soaps, detergents, etc., volumes grew by 14%, versus 6% growth in 9MFY26. The segment contributed 12% of FY26 revenue. Some industrial essentials products are made from the by-products of the edible oil segment, providing AWL a cost advantage.
However, food & FMCG business remained subdued, clocking just 1% growth, slightly better than the 2% drop in 9MFY26, due to weak institutional exports. The segment is scaling up its retail network, after AWL exited the government-to-government business in Q4FY25.
The number of outlets rose by 14% in FY26, largely in rural areas, helping the branded rice business report 30% year-on-year growth in Q4FY26. Alternate channels, e-commerce, q-commerce and modern trade, saw continued traction, rising 43% in the quarter.
AWL’s valuations are appealing, with the stock trading at about 19 times FY27 estimated earnings, as per Bloomberg. But investors must closely track the volatility in prices of raw materials, which form nearly 90% of sales. Besides, investments to scale the food & FMCG business may keep the segment’s margins under pressure in the near term.