Axis Bank Q3 profit beat has investors cheering. Margin recovery next test

Ananya Roy
2 min read27 Jan 2026, 03:54 PM IST
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Axis Bank aims to grow about 300 bps faster than the industry over the next three to five years. (File Photo: Reuters)
Summary
Strong profit, deposit growth, and operational efficiency helped Axis Bank deliver strong profit for Q3, buoying investor sentiment. But, in a concern, net interest margin has remained under pressure.

Axis Bank’s investors heaved a sigh of relief after the lender delivered a strong profit beat for the December quarter (Q3FY26), following several quarters weighed down by one-offs and disappointments. Net profit rose 3% year-on-year to 6,490 crore, sharply surpassing estimates that had anticipated a decline. The stock surged over 5% on Tuesday, hitting a fresh 52-week high of 1,333.20 during trading hours.

The impressive profit scorecard was underpinned by a higher-than-expected acceleration in net interest income (NII), along with improved operating efficiency. NII rose 5% year-on-year to 14,286 crore, while core pre-provision operating profit grew 7%, aided by headcount reductions and reversals of accruals that offset higher employee costs under the new labour codes.

Sequentially, profits jumped 28%, benefiting from the absence of one-offs that had weighed on Q2 results. In the September quarter, the bank had set aside 1,231 crore in additional provisions mandated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) over misclassified priority sector loans.

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It is worth noting that Axis Bank was among the few lenders where deposit growth outpaced credit growth. Advances rose 14% year-on-year, while deposits grew 15%, driven largely by institutional inflows. This is particularly striking in a fiercely competitive deposit environment, a longstanding challenge for the industry, as highlighted by Axis Bank’s managing director and chief executive officer Amitabh Chaudhry while speaking on the sidelines at Davos 2026.

Credit growth at the private sector lender was largely driven by the corporate segment, which makes up less than a third of the loan book, as the bank maintained a cautious approach to retail lending amid stress in credit cards and personal loans.

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Despite seasonally high slippages in agricultural lending in Q3, asset quality continued to improve. Gross and net non-performing assets fell six and two basis points (bps) to 1.40% and 0.42%, respectively, while credit costs declined 51 bps to 0.8%.

But margin pressures have persisted. Net interest margin (NIM) came at 3.64%, falling 9 bps sequentially. To be sure, this was along expected lines, given an unfavourable loan mix. With floating-rate loans comprising 73% of the bank’s loan book, deposit repricing has lagged through the monetary easing cycle. The recent tilt towards low-yielding wholesale loans has also weighed on margins.

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A possible delay in margin-recovery has been a concern for investors. The stock had corrected 5% after the management on 16 December pushed out the timeline to as far as Q1FY27, from the previously guided Q3FY26. The 25-bp rate cut in December has yet to flow through and could pressure Q4FY26 NIM, even as rates on non-retail term deposits inch higher in a competitive environment. Still, the bank maintains a through-cycle NIM target of 3.8% over the next 15-18 months.

Profits are also expected to get a boost as and when the writebacks of RBI-mandated provisions play out. Axis Bank wrote back about 130 crore of standard-asset provisions in Q3FY26. Moreover, with 430 crore now held in provisions towards the new labour codes, operational efficiency should also hold up well.

The management remains bullish on industry growth, supported by combined efforts of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. As its unsecured retail lending portfolio stabilizes, Axis Bank aims to grow about 300 bps faster than the industry over the next three to five years. Against this backdrop, the valuation at 1.74x the FY27 book-value estimates, based on Bloomberg data, offers comfort.

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