Markets
Can Dr Reddy’s shrug off Revlimid’s patent expiry?
Summary
- DRL also faces headwinds because of increasing competitive intensity in the generic market and exchange rate volatility.
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd (DRL) faces a serious threat to its earnings, with its key product, Revlimid, going off-patent in January 2026. The company has taken measures, including launching some crucial products, which should help make up for the earnings erosion. Yet, the launches face uncertainties with regard to their approvals, etc.
Among the launches are Semaglutide in Canada, with a market size of $2 billion, and Abatacept in the US, with a market size of $2.8 billion.
Semaglutide, a diabetic injection, goes off-patent in Canada in March 2026 and can provide a significant advantage to DRL because of its backward integration capability. Abatacept, a medicine for the treatment of arthritis, is a biosimilar that has been a focus area for the company, accounting for a significant part of its research and development (R&D) spending.
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A 7 January Nuvama Institutional Equities report expects these launches, anticipated to start at the beginning of 2026 and 2027, respectively, to make up for nearly 80% of the company’s Ebitda erosion. Based on these launches, the report has raised DRL’s FY27 earnings estimates by 15%. Revlimid accounted for 40% of consolidated Ebitda in FY24, according to Nuvama. Ebitda stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Tough ride ahead
Not everyone is upbeat, however. “While we acknowledge the R&D efforts, we believe these will still not be enough to fill the Revlimid void," said analysts at Incred Equities.
A J.P. Morgan India report projects DRL’s Ebitda to decline by 23% in FY27, citing limited visibility on launches. For its Canada launch, the company needs to build a new fill-finish facility apart from meeting other operational requirements, whereas it needs to complete the trials for the US launch.
DRL also faces headwinds because of increasing competitive intensity in the generic market and exchange rate volatility.
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Besides the recent inorganic steps, DRL has also increased its focus on contract development and manufacturing within its pharmaceutical services and active ingredient segment. The business-to-business segment has a relatively small revenue share of 10% now but is growing at a faster pace. The inorganic developments include the acquisition of Nicotine Replacement Therapy portfolio of Haleon (outside the US market) in June 2024 and a joint venture with Nestlé.
The initiatives have helped the company record compound annual patient growth of 19% during FY22-24, against required growth of 14% CAGR to meet its target of 3x increase in patient base by FY30, under its Horizon-2 programme.
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Amid uncertainties on the outlook, the stock has lagged behind, gaining about 19% over the last one year compared to the 34% returns seen in the sectoral Nifty Pharma index. The stock trades at 19x FY26 estimated earnings, shows Bloomberg data. While the valuation does not look pricey, the timeline of its product launch would be critical to the stock price movement.
