Consumer durables shine in festive sales boom

“Festive demand is estimated to have grown in the range of 7-9% year-on-year," said Harshit Kapadia, an analyst at Elara Securities (India). This includes categories such as cables and wires, fans, switches, and lighting, he added. For televisions, the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup provided a major boost.

The preference for premium products continued with more demand for, say, double-door refrigerators over single-door units. Washing machines, TV sets and fans also saw higher demand at the top end. For fans, companies, such as Havells India, stand to benefit as they cater to the premium segment, where customers are less price-sensitive. In general, the premiumization trend augurs well for the margins.

 

To be sure, there wasn’t much of an increase in demand for fans during the festive season, largely owing to seasonality, similar to air conditioners. Even so, demand for air conditioners was steady in October thanks to high temperatures.

In a recent interaction with Dolat Capital Market, Orient Electric Ltd’s management said it expects its fans portfolio to be subdued in Q3 owing to a high base due to Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) transition. Besides demand for fans generally doesn’t spike during the festive season.

However, Orient expects increased momentum in Q4 with the summer offtake. The company also plans to hike prices by 2-5% in December-January, which would aid margins. Muted demand for fans and pressure on margins have pushed Orient’s shares down 18% so far this year.

Meanwhile, the cables and wires category is expected to outperform most others, mirroring the trend in Q1 and Q2. The outperformance is despite a sequential, albeit slight, fall in copper prices (about 3%) and comes on the back of strong demand in the business-to-business sector and solid infrastructure spending.

Companies that stand to gain from this include Polycab India Ltd and KEI Industries Ltd. Shares of both have more than doubled so far in 2023. Havells also stands to benefit, but to a lesser extent, as the cables and wires sector accounted for nearly 34% of its consolidated revenue in the first half of 2023-24. Shares of Havells have risen 22% so far this year.

To be sure, firms haven’t announced any notable price hikes. In fact, offers and discounts prevail. “The festive season saw discounts across many categories. Most brands offered absolute discounts on the maximum retail price, credit card cashback offers, no-cost EMIs, vouchers and gift hampers," analysts at Jefferies India wrote in a report on 4 December. Premium products were sold with EMI options from companies and stores, boosting affordability, they said. For companies to undertake significant price hikes, input costs must fall considerably.

In this backdrop, revenue growth for Q3 will be led by volumes. For instance, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd. Prabhudas Lilladher, in fact, visited Lohar Chawl, a wholesale market for electronics and electrical goods in Mumbai and found that Crompton’s promotional offers drove better sales versus its competitors.

“As a result, Crompton’s electrical consumer durables segment is anticipated to outperform the sector in Q3 FY24, with expected year-on-year growth of 12-13%, akin to Q2 FY24," said Prabhudas Lilladher in a channel check update note.

It goes without saying that it is crucial for demand to hold up after the festive season to aid volumes.