Inox Wind’s March-quarter (Q4FY26) earnings disappointed, with both revenue and Ebitda falling short of estimates. Revenue declined 2% year-on-year to ₹1,244 crore, while Ebitda margin contracted sharply to 16% from 20% in Q4FY25 and 23% in Q3FY26.
Further, FY26 revenue grew 24% to nearly ₹4,400 crore, missing the company’s own FY26 revenue guidance of ₹5,000 crore. Investors reacted by sending the stock down more than 10% in the three trading sessions following the results.
The management attributed the execution shortfall to supply-chain disruptions involving imported components amid the West Asia war. But this explains only part of the problem.
The bigger surprise was on order inflows. Inox secured only 600 MW of fresh orders in FY26. The company ended the year with a 3.1 GW order book, translating into roughly two years of revenue visibility.
Sure, at 18x FY27 earnings based on consensus Bloomberg estimates, Inox’s stock is cheaper than Suzlon, which trades at 28x. But the discount comes at a cost. Inox’s 7% return on equity (RoE) pales in comparison with Suzlon’s nearly 30% RoE.
Strategic shift
That said, unlike Suzlon, which is moving deeper into EPC projects, Inox is heading in the opposite direction. Management intends to increase the share of pure equipment supply contracts in its order book from 27% currently to 75% over time.
EPC projects typically offer greater execution control and can improve customer stickiness. But they also demand more working capital, carry higher execution risk and can result in lower returns on capital. For a company whose RoE remains well below Suzlon’s, this strategic pivot could prove beneficial.
Another advantage comes from captive demand linked to Inox Clean’s green hydrogen ambitions. The company expects 0.6-0.9 GW of annual orders from Inox Clean, equivalent to roughly one-third of Inox Wind’s annual execution.
That not only supports order inflows but could also improve receivables visibility.
Growth winds
Management has guided for 75% revenue growth in FY27, along with an Ebitda margin of 20-22%. Supply-chain disruptions are expected to ease by the first half of FY27, while the industry's annual installations are projected to rise from 6 GW in FY26 to 8-10 GW going forward.
Meanwhile, the potential listing of Inox Renewable Solutions could unlock shareholder value as part of a broader organizational restructuring by sharpening strategic focus across the group.
For now, however, investors are likely to keep a close watch on one metric above all else: fresh order wins.