Jindal Steel’s capacity expansion holds the key to a re-rating after a modest Q1
Jindal Steel’s June quarter results showed modest growth, but the company’s aggressive capacity expansion, lower input costs, and upcoming project commissioning could drive earnings recovery and a potential stock re-rating in FY26.
Jindal Steel Ltd (formerly Jindal Steel & Power Ltd) reported a 6% year-on-year rise in consolidated Ebitda to ₹3,000 crore for the June quarter (Q1FY26), even as volumes dropped 9%. The figure is adjusted for foreign exchange variation. Ebitda per tonne rose 16% to ₹15,680, aided by a sharp fall in raw material costs.
Lower volumes dragged revenue down 10% to ₹12,300 crore. Average realizations increased 4.5% sequentially to ₹64,700 per tonne, but slipped 0.7% from a year earlier. Steel prices had firmed after the safeguard duty was imposed in April, but have since softened with the early arrival of the monsoon, falling 5-7% in Q2. Still, the impact on profits could be limited, as weaker realizations are expected to be offset by lower coking coal costs.
The more crucial driver for Jindal is the rollout of its expansion projects. Commissioning of a new blast furnace is expected in August, while a post-monsoon recovery in steel prices should lift earnings in the second half of FY26. In Q1, the company commissioned its first continuous galvanizing line and an oxygen plant, expanding value-added product capacity. In Q2, the 4.6 mtpa blast furnace-II and 3 mtpa basic oxygen furnace-II are slated for commissioning, alongside the Utkal B1 coal block, which will allow 100% captive sourcing of coal.
Jindal's management has guided for FY26 sales volumes of 8.5-9 million tonnes (mt), up from 8 mt in FY25, with about 1 mt coming from the new capacity. Nuvama Institutional Equities projects Jindal’s Ebitda to nearly double between FY25 and FY27, with volumes growing at a 19% CAGR, compared with just 1% during FY22-25.
The company has already spent over ₹28,000 crore of its planned ₹47,000 crore capital expenditure (capex). For FY26, it has budgeted ₹9,600 crore. Rising capex and working capital requirements pushed net debt-to-Ebitda to 1.49x in Q1, from 1.26x in Q4FY25. Working capital is expected to normalizein the coming quarters. The management has reaffirmed a cap of 1.5x for the ratio, a sharp improvement from 4.6x in FY20.
The stock has traded largely flat in 2025 so far and appears fairly valued at an enterprise value of 9.3x FY26 estimated Ebitda. Its trajectory will depend on post-monsoon steel price trends and how quickly new capacity ramps up.
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