Kaynes Technology’s stock slumps—but its $1 billion growth push is just beginning
Despite a 25% slide, Kaynes is betting on massive capex, government-backed subsidies, and new capacities to fuel one of the fastest growth runways in India’s electronics manufacturing space.
Shares of Kaynes Technology India Ltd have fallen roughly 25% from their peak of ₹7,705 in October, amid a management reshuffle and the expiry of the lock-in period for pre-IPO shareholders.
Despite the dip, the company’s growth outlook remains robust, supported by a substantial order book and significant capital expenditure (capex) across a range of electronic products, with commercial production for some expected to begin over the next two quarters. At a recent analysts' meet, management expressed confidence in achieving $1 billion in revenue ahead of the initial FY28 target.
Kaynes is executing several key projects, including an outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) facility in Gujarat and a printed circuit board (PCB) plant in Tamil Nadu, slated to begin commercial production in Q4FY26 and Q1FY27, respectively. Customers have already been onboarded for these products, with expected revenues of ₹1,000 crore from OSAT and ₹500 crore from the PCB plant in FY27. The PCB facility will gradually ramp up to high-density interconnect PCBs, which are projected to make up nearly 20% of total output and deliver higher margins.
The company is also investing in CCL (copper-clad laminate, an intermediate product used in PCBs) and camera modules. Total planned capex across all projects is about ₹8,500 crore during FY26-29, nearly double its FY25 balance sheet size of ₹4,600 crore. Of this, around ₹3,500 crore, or 40% of the total, is expected to come as subsidies from the central and state governments under initiatives aimed at building a domestic electronics manufacturing ecosystem.
“We remain positive on Kaynes, led by strong momentum in India EMS (on import substitution, with Kaynes enjoying industry-leading margin and robust order inflows)," said Elara Capital in a report dated 25 November, projecting earnings per share growth of 49% CAGR over FY25-28. The company has also ventured into satellite and drone electronics.
Kaynes’ financials mirror the strong business environment. Revenue in H1FY26 rose 47% year-on-year to ₹1,600 crore, while Ebitda grew at a sharper 75% to ₹260 crore, aided by slower input cost growth and better operating leverage. Management has maintained its guidance of clocking ₹4,500 crore in revenue for FY26, implying a 65% year-on-year growth, supported by an order book of ₹8,000 crore. FY25 revenue growth was 51%.
The stock trades at 57x FY27 estimated earnings, according to Bloomberg. Consistent performance over the coming quarters, along with ramp-up of production at new facilities, will be key drivers of the stock’s trajectory.
topics
