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Mumbai-focused real estate developer Oberoi Realty Ltd has delayed the launch of its much-awaited Thane project to Q1FY23 as the company awaits approvals, showed channel checks by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. This project was expected to launch in March 2022.

So, what does this mean for the developer's sales estimates? Analysts at the domestic brokerage house had assumed 600 crore of sales from the Thane project in 4QFY22, which will now spill over to FY23.

"On the back of a delayed launch, we reduce our FY22 pre-sales estimate by 14%, but increase the same by 4%/7% for FY23/FY24 to account for the spillover," said the Motilal Oswal report dated 31 March.

That said, the company's sales momentum from its ongoing projects remains intact. Registration data for Mumbai for February and March show a 25-30% month-on-month rise in property sales.

"Project wise registration data till the beginning of March 2022 for Oberoi indicates sales of 15-20 units across all projects, except Sky City, Borivali, which reported sales of ~75 units. With a further pickup in momentum in March 2022, we expect the quarterly run-rate across all projects to at least remain intact, if not increase further," added the report.

Further, analysts highlight that with a robust (7 million square feet) near-term launch pipeline across projects in Borivali, Goregaon, and Thane and Rs10,000 crore of inventory nearing completion in Mulund and Worli, the sales run-rate is expected to remain strong over the next three-four years.

So far in this calendar year the Oberoi Realty stock has risen 7.5%. In comparison, the S&P BSE Realty index has declined by 4% in the said span. Many real estate companies are expected to exit FY22 with record sales despite some disruption by Omicron in the initial months of the Q4FY22. However, going ahead, the upside in stocks would depend on cost inflation and ability to raise prices without hurting sales momentum.

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