Patanjali Foods: Street’s optimism in assigning high FMCG valuation multiples was misplaced

Manish Joshi
1 min read2 Jun 2026, 01:27 PM IST
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The Patanjali Foods stock, at its peak price of ₹670.33 on 16 April 2025, commanded a market capitalization of almost ₹73,000 crore.
Summary
Patanjali targets FY27 volume growth of 3-5% in edible oils, 8-10% in foods, and 15% in home care. However, ICICI Securities cut its EPS estimate by 14%, forecasting ongoing earnings pressure due to rising input costs and stagnant profitability in the edible oils segment.

Patanjali Foods Ltd’s FMCG business revenue rose 2.6% y-o-y to 2,890 crore in the March quarter (Q4FY26). However, the bright spot is that discretionary categories such as biscuits and home and personal care grew by about 15% each.

The FMCG segment Ebit rose by 16% y-o-y to 276 crore. Biscuit sales growth showed strong momentum with the ‘Doodh’ brand surpassing annual sales of 1,300 crore. The softening of wheat prices and stable sugar prices helped in sustaining the profitability of biscuits. Beverage sales were encouraging towards Q4-end, aided by seasonal summer demand.

But these gains were more than offset by a poor show in the edible oils segment as its Ebit fell by 31% y-o-y to 178 crore, largely owing to a 20% and 23% spike in palm oil and soya oil prices, respectively. A rise in freight, insurance and packaging material costs also hurt profitability.

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Even assuming that Q4 had headwinds, the annual performance isn’t impressive, with a 5% fall in recurring net profit. Despite that, the stock didn’t react much, perhaps because the bulk of the damage through valuation de-rating has already happened.

The Patanjali Foods stock, at its peak price of 670.33 on 16 April 2025, commanded a market capitalization of almost 73,000 crore. Given FY25’s net profit of 1,283 crore, it was valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57x, reflecting optimism in assigning a high FMCG valuation multiple to Patanjali.

Excessive valuation

The valuation multiple was excessive for two reasons. First, edible oils contributed about 40% of Patanjali’s total FY26 Ebitda. Valuing the edible oil segment with an Ebitda margin of less than 5%—more like a trading business—at multiples of an FMCG business did not make sense.

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Second, Patanjali’s FMCG Ebitda margin is much lower than that of its FMCG peers: 10.81% in FY26 vis-à-vis 15%-plus for Britannia Industries and Hindustan Unilever.

Patanjali’s management has guided for FY27 volume growth of 3-5% in edible oils, 8-10% in foods and 15% in home and personal care. But unless there are material product price hikes or a sharp deceleration in input costs, earnings are likely to be under pressure.

ICICI Securities has cut Patanjali’s FY27 EPS estimate by almost 14%, which means this year’s EPS would be 30% lower than in FY26. While the valuation has now fallen to 35x FY27 EPS estimates of the brokerage firm, the Street awaits signs of earnings growth recovery.

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