Tata Steel stock is shining—but are European risks priced in?

Optimism around potential US rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and benefit commodities, including steel, has bolstered sentiment. Further support is expected from anticipated import tariffs in Europe and a long-overdue reduction in China’s steel output, which should lift realizations and margins.

This comes at a critical juncture for the steel major, whose consolidated Ebitda margin has compressed to 12% in FY25 from 26% in FY22. While margins rebounded to 14% in the June quarter (Q1FY26), Tata Steel’s European operations continue to weigh on consolidated financials. By contrast, the Q1FY26 standalone Indian business posted a robust margin of 23.4%.

The UK segment, contributing 27.5% of Q1FY26 consolidated revenues, has struggled under high energy costs amid geopolitical tensions and stiff competition from cheap imported steel. Soft domestic demand has rendered safeguard quotas largely ineffective. Tata Steel noted in its Q1FY26 earnings that Chinese steel was trading at roughly $450/tonne, compared with $660/tonne in Germany and the UK.

Meanwhile, massive decarbonization costs, particularly amid escalated environmental and health concerns in the Netherlands, have added fuel to the fire. The Netherlands contributed 11.5% of Tata Steel’s Q1FY26 revenue. Result? Following almost ₹5,000 crore consolidated loss in FY24, Tata Steel’s net debt-to-equity has accelerated to more than 0.9x as of June from 0.78x in March 2024.

Growth amid risks

Domestic demand, however, offers hope. Thanks to persistent government spending, the infrastructure, construction, and capital goods sectors have kept up the domestic demand for steel. While overall private capex is still sluggish, select segments such as premium automobiles, engineering and appliances, and solar have aided domestic demand. GST 2.0 should aid demand further.

Tata Steel’s replacement of blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces in the UK will help address environmental concerns. The anticipated import tariffs in Europe and output cuts in China would help moderate import competition, even as lower energy costs protect margins.

While dumping of cheap Chinese steel has hurt domestic realizations too, the 12% safeguard duty imposed by India has helped cushion the impact. To capitalize on these tailwinds, Tata Steel has large expansion plans amounting to ₹10,000 crore annually. This is expected to take the company’s capacity from 21.6 million tonnes per annum to 40 mtpa by 2030.

That said, Q1FY26 had seen flat domestic deliveries due to a year-on-year slowdown in domestic demand from individual housebuilders, energy, and engineering goods. Lower volumes and operating leverage eroded more than ₹2,000 crore from the company’s Ebitda even as higher realizations and lower raw-material costs added almost ₹2,500 crore sequentially.

While cost-savings helped last quarter, higher R&D expenses in the UK and delayed government spending and regulatory clarity in the Netherlands can stress out margins going forward. If domestic automotive demand and the European Union slowdown do not reverse, demand will fail to keep up with the rising capacity. Consequent subdued operating leverage can thin out margins further, even as lower realizations from any delays in production cuts by China can make matters worse.

Reflecting these risks, despite outperforming peer JSW Steel Ltd over the past five years, Tata Steel trades at an EV/Ebitda multiple of 8.2x based on FY26 estimates, as per Bloomberg, compared with JSW Steel’s premium valuation of 11x.