As it turns out, they may still be able to keep some of the market share gains, which came as a result of the airline’s woes. After all, hardly anyone expects Jet Airways’ capacity to return to pre-crisis levels very quickly. IndiGo and SpiceJet increased their market share in February by 3.5 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, respectively, on a year-on-year basis. During this time, Jet Airways’ market share fell 5.4 percentage points.
“Even if Jet gets an investor by end-June, the airline will be able to restore only 50% of its H1FY19 capacity by the end of calendar year 2019," says an analyst who did not want to be named. But much also depends on how much money the new investor is able to infuse.
“Recent events of capacity disruption of competitors can drive up IndiGo’s FY2020 capacity addition as well as yields," said Garima Mishra, analyst at Kotak Institutional Equities, in a report on 22 March. Of course, this was before the resolution plan was announced, although the prognosis would not have changed much since. Deeper domestic network and possible availability of slots can lend wings to IndiGo’s international aspirations as well, she added.
While fares skyrocketed in March, they are not sustainable from a medium-term perspective. Still, the outlook on fares isn’t too bad. It will be another story if Jet Airways finds a deep-pocketed investor, who is keen to recoup the domestic market share quickly. But as things stand, it looks like the airline’s woes and its bank-led bailout plan have improved fortunes of all listed firms simultaneously.