Meesho share price jumps nearly 8% after Q4 results. Should you buy or sell?

Meesho share price surged almost 8% on Thursday, 7 May, following the e-commerce company's announcement that its consolidated net loss narrowed to ₹166.34 crore for the fourth quarter ended 31 March.

In the same quarter of the previous financial year, the company had reported a net loss of ₹1,391.38 crore, as stated in a regulatory filing.

For the quarter under analysis, Meesho's consolidated revenue from operations rose 47.13% to ₹3,531.21 crore, up from ₹2,399.97 crore in the corresponding period last year.

At the same time, total expenses reached ₹3,807 crore, up from ₹2,636.83 crore a year earlier.

For the entire financial year 2025-26, Meesho's consolidated net loss declined to ₹1,357.73 crore, compared with ₹3,941.70 crore in FY25.

The company's revenue from operations increased by 34.4% to ₹12,626.34 crore in FY26, up from ₹9,389.90 crore in the prior fiscal year.

The number of annual transacting users surged by 33% year-on-year to 264 million, while total orders increased by 45% year-on-year to 2.67 billion. The net merchandise value for the year reached ₹41,560 crore, up 39%.

Meesho's founder and CEO, Vidit Aatrey, stated that FY26 has reinforced the company's belief that the Indian e-commerce sector has significantly more potential than many people realise.

The board of the company has approved an investment of up to ₹100 crore in its subsidiary, Meesho Payments Private Limited (MPPL). This capital infusion will occur through participation in a rights issue or additional capital issuance in one or several phases.

Meesho share price today opened at an intraday low of ₹204.40 apiece on the BSE, and the stock touched an intraday high of ₹211.35 per share.

Should you buy, sell or hold?

JM Financial said Meesho delivered a strong operational performance in Q4 FY26, with both NMV growth and profitability improving sharply on a sequential basis.

According to the brokerage, marketplace NMV growth accelerated to 42.7% YoY in Q4 from 26.4% in Q3, supported by nearly 33% growth in average transacting users (ATUs) and higher ordering frequency.

The brokerage also noted that Meesho’s contribution margin expanded by 175 basis points QoQ to 4.0% of NMV, as the temporary logistics disruptions seen during Q2 and Q3 largely normalised.

Following the Q4 performance, JM Financial raised its NMV estimates by 2–4% for FY27–28 and increased adjusted EBITDA estimates by 4–5% over the same period.

The brokerage has also revised its DCF-based March 2027 target price to ₹180 from ₹155 earlier, citing improved visibility on the company’s path to break-even and a lower WACC assumption of 12% versus 13% earlier.

However, JM Financial maintained its ‘REDUCE’ rating, stating that the current market price leaves limited room for execution missteps.

Separately, Meesho’s board has approved an additional investment of up to ₹100 crore in Meesho Payments Private Limited through subscription to a rights issue or further capital issuance in one or more tranches.

Choice Institutional Equities said Meesho’s Q4 FY26 results reinforce its constructive medium-term outlook on the company, driven by continued user expansion and steady growth in the seller ecosystem.

The brokerage noted that management has largely resolved the logistics inefficiencies witnessed last year, with a contribution margin of around 4.0% expected to serve as the new baseline going forward. It expects contribution margins to improve gradually, supported by operating leverage from past investments and continued progress in ad monetisation.

According to the brokerage, key operating metrics, including user growth, seller additions, order frequency, and GMV-to-NMV conversion, have improved meaningfully. However, this improvement has not yet translated into a significant acceleration in advertising monetisation, which is likely to remain gradual over the near term.

Choice Institutional Equities believes that most near-term positives are already reflected in the current valuation, limiting further upside potential from existing levels.

As a result, the brokerage has downgraded the stock to ‘ADD’ while maintaining its target price of ₹210, based on a 4.0x FY28 estimated EV/Revenue multiple. It has also lowered its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates, with its valuation framework supported by a three-stage DCF analysis conducted as a sanity check.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.