Middle East conflict: Get ready for oil to hit $200 a barrel, warns Iran as IRGC strikes Thai vessel in Hormuz Strait

Iran has cautioned that global oil prices could reach $200 per barrel following a series of assaults by its forces on merchant vessels in the blockaded Persian Gulf this Wednesday. Simultaneously, Tehran launched missile strikes at Israel and various regional targets, aiming to prove its military resilience despite what the Pentagon characterises as unprecedentedly intense US-Israeli aerial campaigns.

"Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised," Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's military command, said in comments addressed to the United States.

Investors bet Trump will find a quick way to end war

While oil valuations spiked earlier this week, they have since moderated as stock markets show signs of recovery. Investors appear to be speculating that US President Donald Trump will secure a rapid resolution to the conflict, which began alongside Israel nearly a fortnight ago.

President Trump, who has spent the week attempting to calm global markets with promises of a swift conclusion, claimed in an Axios interview that there was "practically nothing left" to strike within Iran. "Just a little this and that... It will end whenever I want it to," Trump remarked during the brief telephone exchange.

However, the reality on the ground shows no reprieve. There is currently no indication that shipping can safely navigate the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum remains trapped behind this narrow corridor along the Iranian coast, marking the most severe energy supply crisis since the oil shocks of the 1970s.

In response, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the release of 400 million barrels from global strategic stockpiles—the largest such intervention in history. While Washington quickly backed the move, experts warn that the daily volume countries can realistically release represents only a fraction of the supply typically transiting the Strait.

After peaking near $120 on Monday, oil prices have settled around $90, reflecting market hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and the reopening of the waterway. Nevertheless, Iranian officials signaled on Wednesday their intent to inflict a sustained economic shock as hostilities persist.

Following an overnight strike on a Tehran bank, Zolfaqari announced that Iran would retaliate against financial institutions doing business with Israel or the United States. He advised civilians across the Middle East to maintain a 1,000-metre distance from such banks.

Additionally, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) confirmed they fired upon two ships in the Gulf for allegedly defying orders. One vessel, a Thai-flagged carrier, was set on fire, leading to a full evacuation. Three crew members are reportedly missing and feared trapped in the engine room. These latest strikes bring the total number of merchant ships hit since the outbreak of the war to 14.