Indian markets rose nearly 1% this week as softer crude oil prices, easing volatility and buying in real estate, healthcare and consumption stocks lifted sentiment. However, weakness in capital goods and power, along with continued pressure on the rupee, showed that the recovery remained selective, and would need support from June-quarter earnings to sustain.
On Friday, the Sensex rose 0.34% to close at 77,763.94, while the Nifty 50 advanced 0.39% to 24,270.85. Volatility eased during the week, with the fear gauge index India VIX falling to 11.79 from 13.05. Besides, crude oil prices continued their slide to $72.70 a barrel from $75.07, offering some relief to an economy that depends heavily on energy imports, while the rupee remained under pressure, weakening 0.92% to 95.223 against the dollar.
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Realty lead
Realty stocks led the market rally, with the BSE Realty index surging 7.8% during the week. Healthcare gained 3.1%, while consumer durables and consumer discretionary stocks advanced about 2% each.
However, the gains were not broad-based. Capital goods stocks declined 2.7%, while the power index fell 2.6%. Sectors such as oil and gas and telecommunications slipped 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.
Said Tanvi Kanchan, associate director at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, “Gains in realty, healthcare and consumer stocks reflected easing geopolitical concerns, cooling crude prices and improving domestic demand expectations. Weakness in capital goods and power, appeared to be profit-booking rather than a structural downturn.”
“Cyclicals could participate in the next phase if June-quarter earnings confirm resilient demand and healthy order books,” Kanchan added.
Rajesh Singla, founder and chief executive of Alpha AMC, called it sector rotation rather than a broad uptrend. “Lower crude prices and dovish Fed commentary have supported realty and consumption, while capital goods and power are seeing profit-booking. Earnings will determine whether the rally can sustain,” he said.
Singla expects IT, realty and domestic financials to remain in focus, with US jobs data, FPI flows and earnings commentary guiding the market next week.
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Relative resilience
Worldwide, Indian equities performed better than several Asian and emerging-market peers during the week. India outperformed Indonesia, China, Brazil and South Korea, where benchmark indices declined 0.3-4%. However, it lagged Taiwan, Germany, Hong Kong and the S&P 500, which gained between 2% and 5%.
Kanchan said Taiwan’s outperformance was largely driven by artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks, sectors that have limited weight in Indian benchmark indices. The Nasdaq’s gains also reflected a rebound in technology stocks after weeks of selling.
“Monsoon progress, crude oil prices and June-quarter earnings will be the key domestic triggers,” she added. “Softer crude would remain supportive for India’s inflation, currency and fiscal outlook.”
Rupee under pressure
Meanwhile, the rupee emerged as the second-worst-performing currency among the global peers, weakening 0.92% to 95.223 against the green back from 94.40 a week earlier. Only the Russian ruble fared worse, depreciating 2.65%. Brazilian real and Indonesian rupiah were the other two weak performing currencies depreciating 0.46% and 0.19%, respectively during the week. The ones performing well included the Malaysian ringgit which appreciated 1.2%, followed by the Mexican peso and Japanese yen.
Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank India highlighted that the rupee’s sharp underperformance was driven not only by broad dollar strength, but also by the RBI’s large short forward dollar position, which has kept the spot market relatively under-hedged and encouraged speculative pressure. “As these forward positions are gradually unwound, demand for dollars in the spot market could keep the rupee under pressure.”
“Prolonged depreciation may also weigh on FPI sentiment and domestic equities if investors perceive higher currency risk and imported inflation,” he added.
