Rupee opens 13 paise lower at 94.74 against the US dollar

The Indian rupee started lower by 13 paise at 94.74 against the US dollar on Thursday, 7 May, following a significant recovery in the previous day’s trading. On Wednesday, the local currency gained 69 paise, finishing at 94.49 per dollar, bolstered by falling crude oil prices and a more favourable global sentiment.

The rupee's recovery occurred as Brent crude prices dropped towards the $100-per-barrel threshold after Donald Trump suggested a potential agreement with Iran, which raised optimism about reducing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Nevertheless, optimism waned after US President Donald Trump said it was "too early" for in-person discussions with Tehran, while a prominent Iranian legislator claimed the US proposal was more of a wishlist than a feasible plan, as reported by Reuters. Prices recovered from the session's low of $96.75.

A decline in oil prices would provide crucial relief for oil-importing India and its currency, the rupee. The recent surge over the past two months has led economists to adjust their forecasts for the rupee downwards, increase inflation expectations, and lower growth projections.

According to market experts, the US labour market remained resilient despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The latest ADP employment data surprised positively, with private payrolls rising by 109,000 in April — the strongest increase in nearly 15 months and above market expectations.

Under normal circumstances, such strong labour market data would have supported the US dollar, as it signals underlying economic strength and stability. However, experts noted that geopolitical developments overshadowed macroeconomic fundamentals during the session.

The sharp easing in crude oil prices helped ease concerns about inflationary pressures, while optimism about a possible US–Iran agreement kept the dollar under pressure despite robust employment numbers. Analysts said the market reaction reflected a session where geopolitical headlines carried greater weight than economic data.

Back home, India’s macroeconomic indicators remained supportive. According to experts, the upward revisions in the HSBC India Services PMI to 58.8 and the Composite PMI to 58.2 indicate that domestic demand and overall business activity remain healthy.

Market participants believe these indicators reinforce confidence in the Indian economy's resilience, even amid global uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions and volatile energy markets.

Experts added that the recent developments have supported the Indian rupee in the near term. However, the currency’s trajectory going forward will largely depend on how the evolving US–Iran situation unfolds and its impact on global crude oil prices.

Rupee Outlook

Amit Pabari, MD, Research Team, CR Forex Advisors, said the 95.30–95.50 zone is likely to act as strong resistance. A pullback toward the 94.20–93.80 range appears possible as markets absorb recent developments and react to any further easing in geopolitical tensions.

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