18 months of no returns! Radhika Gupta shares historical data hinting Nifty 50 may be primed for next big rally

Eighteen months is a long time in the stock market — especially when returns are close to zero. That has been the reality for Indian investors tracking the Nifty 50, which has largely moved sideways amid global uncertainties, including the 2024 United States presidential election, trade war concerns and foreign investor outflows.

From September 1, 2024, to February 28, 2026, the Nifty 50 has seen a 0.40% decline during which it has managed to scale fresh highs while failing to sustain at those levels.

The time is especially trying for retail investors who kept faith in the Indian equities, pumping in over ₹4.4 lakh crore, while the systematic investment plans (SIPs), according to Amfi data. FPIs have sold off stocks worth ₹2.2 lakh crore during the same period.

However, this "dead 18-month period" is likely paving the path for the next big move, if the historical data shared by Edelweiss Mutual Fund Radhika Gupta is anything to go by.

In a social media post on X (formerly Twitter), Radhika Gupta said, "The market hasn't made money for 18 months! Since I am hearing this quite a bit, a perspective on what historically followed the "dead 18 month period"."

The data shared from Edelweiss MF clearly shows that over the last 25 years, such periods of "no returns" are generally followed by a trend reversal in the next 12 months and even strong returns in the next three years.

Next 1 year positive most of the time

A key takeaway from the data clearly shows that in 12 out of 13 such instances in the past, the Nifty has delivered positive returns. The average return is 30% while the lowest is 1%,

In the early 2020s, the Nifty 50 even managed to zoom a whopping 70-80% in the next 12 months after remaining stagnant for almost 1.5 years.

But the market tends to reward patience, and the bigger gains usually came over three years, shows the data shared by Gupta.

Patience pays off!

Looking at the next 36 months, Most periods delivered 40–60% returns. Some cycles produced exceptional gains (150–248%), particularly after deep market corrections.

The key takeaway is that historically, the real payoff came for investors who stayed invested for three years after a consolidation phase.

However, investors must note that not every episode led to explosive gains.

For example, the 2008–09 and 2011–12 periods had more muted follow-up returns. But even then, returns were largely positive over the next three years, which could provide the investors with a confidence boost amid the ongoing market turmoil.

Market outlook

Vinay Paharia, CIO, PGIM India Mutual Fund, said at this juncture, the Indian stock market is seeing a mix of positives and a slew of uncertainties.

On the positive front, India has a healthy GDP print, the signing of two prospective trade deals with large trading partners, low interest rates, and cuts in various indirect taxes.

These, Paharias said, are net positive contributors to the growth of the Indian economy.

On the other hand, Indian stock markets are rocked by global geopolitical uncertainty and its consequent impact on trade routes, rising crude and possibly other commodity prices, and AI-related disruption across sectors such as IT services.

We reckon many of the geopolitics-related impacts could be transitory in nature, while AI-related impacts are more long-term and would necessitate changes in business models, said Paharia.

"Indian markets are also correcting and shedding excesses of the past. At the same time, there is an improving risk–reward payoff potential in the high-growth and high-quality segment of the market. We need to look through short-term volatility and focus on areas of self-sustaining growth."

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.