The Indian market has been very volatile and in turn given a muted performance so far in 2024, despite hitting record highs in January as well as in February. On the one hand, hopes of rate cuts in the near term, improving inflation, and decent December quarter earnings have kept the investors positive. However, consistent FPI selling, a rise in US bond yields, and weak global trends have capped the positive sentiment.
Despite the volatility experts continue to believe in the long-term growth story of the Indian equity market.
"While the medium to long-term outlook for the overall market remains positive, we may see volatility in the short run with the market responding in either direction. Keeping this in view, the current setup is a ‘Buy on Dips’ market. We recommend investors maintain good liquidity (10%) to use any dips in a phased manner and build a position in high-quality companies (where the earnings visibility is quite high) with an investment horizon of 12-18 months. With current valuations offering limited scope for further expansion, an increase in corporate earnings will be the primary driver of the market returns moving forward. Hence, bottom-up stock picking with a focus on ‘growth at a reasonable price’ and Quality stories would be key to generating satisfactory returns in the next one year," said Axis Securities.
Benchmark Nifty hit a record high of 22,126.80 on February 2, 2024. It has gained around 1 percent this month so far after an extremely flat January. Meanwhile, in the last 1 year, the index has risen around 22 percent. Just in Today's deals, Nifty jumped 111 points to its intra-day high of 21,951.10.
Most experts anticipate resistance around 22,000-22,150 levels meanwhile support for the benchmark is seen around 21,800 levels.
Nifty has been holding onto the support levels of 21500, marked by the 61.8 percent retracement of the recent rally from 21,137 to 22,126. On the hourly chart, Nifty's closure above 21,800 surpassing the last three session's high resembles a price breakout. Sustained positive momentum, without significant global escalations, could lead Nifty to retest levels of 22,000 - 22,100. However, a strong upward trend would require surpassing 22,100 to initiate a fresh upside. Support levels have shifted higher, with immediate support around 21,650, and 21,500 has gained significant credibility as a support level. As previously mentioned, a sharp sell-off would only occur if these support levels are breached.
Technically, Nifty's daily chart showcases a bullish engulfing candle. The Fibonacci retracement indicates solid support around the 21,500 followed by 21,630 levels. As long as this pivotal threshold remains unviolated, the bullish trend seen in the index remains intact.
Bollinger Band upholds Nifty's current position, as it firmly holds the middle band which points towards a prevailing bullish sentiment. Stock-specific actions will likely steer the market in the days ahead.
The next resistance for the Nifty is anticipated at the 22,000 level. Once breached, there is a possibility of Nifty testing the near all-time high of 22,127 levels.
The index would need to sustain above the 21,750-21,770 zone for the positive bias to remain intact. If a decisive breach above the upper band of the range barrier of the 21,870 zone is triggered, a breakout would be confirmed and with improvement in the bias, one can expect for the next target to retest the previous peak levels of 22,000–22,150 levels. The near-term support would be maintained near 21,750–21,770 levels.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.
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