Axis Bank share price tumbles 5% after Q4 results: Should you still buy? Here's what brokerages say

Axis Bank Q4 Results: Shares of Axis Bank declined around 5% on Monday, April 27, after the lender reported a slight drop in fourth-quarter profit, impacted by higher provisions and trading losses. Investor sentiment remained weak despite stable core performance, as the bank built a sizeable contingency buffer amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

Net profit for the March quarter came in at ₹7,071 crore, marginally lower than ₹7,118 crore reported a year ago. A sharp rise in provisions weighed on earnings, with total provisions jumping 139% year-on-year to ₹3,522 crore from ₹1,359 crore.

Axis Bank Stock Performance

Axis Bank stock fell as much as 4.7% to its day's low of ₹1301.00 on BSE. It is just 8% away from its 52-week high of ₹1,418.30, hit in February 2026. Meanwhile, it touched its 52-week low of ₹1,041.30 in September 2025.

The bank stock has been on an uptrend in recent times, rising 9.5% in the last 1 month, 5% in the past 6 months, and 13% in the last 1 year.

What triggered the sharp fall in Axis Bank stock?

A significant portion of the provisioning— ₹2,001 crore—was a one-time buffer created to safeguard against potential stress in certain loan accounts due to geopolitical uncertainties. The bank clarified that this was a precautionary step and not indicative of any underlying deterioration in asset quality.

Managing Director Amitabh Chaudhry stated that the additional provision was prudent in nature, aimed at strengthening the balance sheet during uncertain times, and did not reflect adverse credit trends across the loan or investment portfolio.

Operationally, the bank reported a 7% decline in operating profit to ₹10,013 crore, down from ₹10,752 crore a year ago. This was primarily due to a ₹606 crore trading loss and elevated operating expenses, which offset a 5% rise in net interest income. Net interest margin (NIM) also narrowed to 3.62% from 3.97% in the same quarter last year.

For the full financial year FY26, net profit declined to ₹24,457 crore compared to ₹26,374 crore in FY25, reflecting the impact of higher costs and provisioning.

On the business front, growth remained strong, with advances rising 19% YoY to ₹12.34 lakh crore, led by retail loans (55%) and a higher share of secured lending (73%). Deposits grew 14% YoY to ₹13.36 lakh crore, though the bank flagged the need to bridge the credit-deposit gap.

Asset quality improved sequentially, with GNPA easing to 1.23% from 1.40% and NNPA to 0.37% from 0.42%. Slippages declined to ₹4,709 crore, while write-offs stood at ₹3,096 crore. A tax write-back of ₹580 crore supported earnings.

The board recommended a final dividend of ₹1 per share (50% payout) and approved raising up to ₹20,000 crore. However, CFO Puneet Sharma said there are no immediate equity-raising plans.

Should you still buy?

Axis Bank’s Q4 performance prompted a measured response from brokerages, with most agreeing that the bank remains fundamentally strong but faces near-term constraints that could limit sharp upside in the stock.

Domestic brokerage house Motilal Oswal Financial Services highlighted that the quarter was operationally in line, with lower credit costs and improving asset quality supporting the outlook. However, it flagged the ₹20 billion contingency provisioning as a sign of caution amid geopolitical uncertainty. The brokerage retained a Neutral rating with a target price of ₹1,475, implying limited upside from current levels.

“AXSB reported an inline quarter, with standard asset provisions of ₹20 billion largely offset by a tax reversal of ₹21.9 billion. NIM declined marginally by 2bp QoQ to 3.62%, with the bank reiterating its through-cycle NIM guidance of ~3.8%,” the brokerage said.

HDFC Securities echoed a similar view, noting that growth across loans and deposits remains healthy, but operating performance continues to lag. It emphasised that sustained improvement in deposit quality and cost of funds will be critical for earnings consistency. It maintained an Add rating with a revised target price of ₹1,490, suggesting moderate upside contingent on execution.

“Loan growth was healthy at 18.5% YoY, driven by wholesale and SME segments, while deposit growth remained robust with CASA ratio improving. Lower credit costs and provisioning buffer creation supported earnings despite softer operating performance,” it said.

Meanwhile, Elara Capital took a relatively more constructive stance, maintaining a Buy rating and raising its target price to ₹1,629. It argued that while the bank has strengthened its fundamentals over the past few years, intermittent earnings volatility has held back valuations. It added that any near-term stock movement will likely be influenced by how the bank trades relative to peers, suggesting a slower re-rating cycle.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.