Bajaj Finance share price hovers near 52-week high levels, jumps 45% YTD. Is blue-chip NBFC stock poised for more gains?

Bajaj Finance shares have been the apple of investors' investors, churning wealth steadily over the years. Over the last ten years, Bajaj Finance has given multibagger gains of more than 1,800%. And interestingly, the stock returns have been positive on a one, two, three and five-year perspectives, too, highlighting the continued interest in the blue-chip NBFC counter.

The Nifty and Sensex constituent - Bajaj Finance - has been hovering at 52-week high levels of ₹1,025.75, touched yesterday. The 16% rally seen in the last one month alone, analysts attribute factors like government reforms and rate cuts by the central bank as key catalysts. Even the management sounds confident of reaching its projected FY26 targets despite tariff threats.

Poised to gain from reforms

Sandeep Jain, CFO - Bajaj Finance, recently told Emkay Global that overall credit demand would firm up due to a change in the taxable income slab, reduction in GST in most consumer goods ahead of the festive season, 8th Pay Commission, and RBI’s rate reduction aimed at countering the effect of tariff and softening in MSME disbursement.

The management firmly believes it will be able to meet its FY26 guidance of AUM growth of 23-24% and credit cost at ~1.85-1.95%.

Prashant Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities, believes NBFCs, as a sector, will benefit significantly from an interest rate cut cycle, potentially even more than banks.

"A key development supporting this outlook is the Reserve Bank of India’s recent move to lower risk weights on bank lending to NBFCs and microfinance institutions. This regulatory easing is expected to unlock additional liquidity, enabling NBFCs to access funds at a lower cost and expand their credit portfolios more efficiently. The full impact of this change is likely to be reflected in the Q2FY2026 earnings, where we anticipate a meaningful improvement in margins and profitability, particularly for larger and well-established players," said Tapse.

He believes Bajaj Finance will emerge as the biggest beneficiary of this move, justifying its 52-week high.

Bajaj Finance's earnings and outlook

The Q1 FY26 result for the company was on track with strong profit growth backed by expansion in AUM and revenue growth as well. Its consolidated net profit rose 22% YoY to ₹4,765 crore, driven by strong loan growth and a broad-based customer expansion. Meanwhile, consolidated revenue grew 21% to ₹19,524 crore, driven by a 22% rise in Net Interest Income (NII) to ₹10,227 crore and a 21% rise in net total income.

Driven by a good monsoon, improving macros, rate cut benefits beginning to reflect, and higher disposable incomes, Bajaj Finance remains well placed to

deliver ~24% growth without compromising on asset quality, said Emkay Global.

However, Vaqarjaved Khan, CFA, Sr. Fundamental Analyst, Angel One, believes that credit risk is expected to remain elevated in small ticket retail loans and growth is expected to moderate in 2W & 3W loans and the MSME segment as well.

While fundamentals remain resilient, analysts remain sceptical about valuations.

Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research, Ventura, said that Bajaj Finance's fundamentals are best in class. With FY26 AUM ~23-24% growth, earnings can underpin the rally — but elevated unsecured stress and rich price-to-book ratio suggest staggered entries as near-term consolidation is likely.

Khan also raised concerns over valuations, saying that the recent upmove has led to valuations getting stretched for the company. Any correction can be used as an opportunity for long-term accumulation in the stock, he advised.

Emkay Global reiterated its 'ADD' rating on the stock with an unchanged target price of ₹1,000, implying FY27E standalone P/B of 5x.

Bajaj Finance shares: Technical outlook

On technical charts, analysts see a possibility of Bajaj Finance crossing to ₹1,100 mark.

"From a technical standpoint, Bajaj Finance is trading steadily near ₹1,005, with strong support established around the ₹965 level. The stock has been forming a constructive chart pattern, indicating resilience and consistent buying interest at lower levels. A sustained breakout above the ₹1,015– ₹1,020 zone could trigger fresh upward momentum, potentially paving the way for a move towards ₹1,100 in the near term," said Tapse.

He advised trades to consider accumulating on dips towards the ₹980– ₹970 range, with a stop-loss placed below ₹965 to manage risk. "Overall, the trend remains positive, and the current setup favours further upside, making the stock attractive for both positional and short-term trading strategies," Tapse added.

Meanwhile, Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree, said that Bajaj Finance has broken out of a 97-day box pattern at 965, supported by rising volumes, confirming institutional participation. The immediate breakout structure suggests a target of 1,100 levels, he said.

"However, looking at the broader picture, the weekly breakout from 760 is still active, and its unfilled target extends towards 1,200. This implies that while 1,100 could act as an interim resistance, the overall trend structure remains bullish. Sustained momentum and volume-backed price action above 1,100 will be key to unlocking higher levels. Traders should ride the trend with a stop-loss placed below the breakout zone for risk management," he advised.

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