Bond rally in India at risk as RBI cash transfer delayed

Bond traders in India are getting worried that a six-week rally is coming to an end.

An official said Monday that a central bank panel would only make its recommendations on the transfer of reserves to the government next month. That surprised traders who were pricing in as much as a ₹3 trillion ($43 billion) boost to state coffers from the windfall.

“Market players would be heading back to the drawing boards to re-work the budget math,” said Vijay Sharma, executive vice president for fixed-income at PNB Gilts in New Delhi. “Traders are jittery that the government may end up with higher borrowings, and if that happens, we may see more selloff.”

Expectations of the bonanza from the Reserve Bank of India helped fueled a stellar rally in bonds that pushed down yields to their lowest since October 2017. With that in doubt, traders are concerned the government may exceed the ₹7.1 trillion of borrowings announced earlier.

The yield on India’s benchmark 10-year debt climbed as much as seven basis points to 6.88% on Monday after reports about the delay in the panel’s recommendations. The disappointment may send the yield to as high as 7.10%, according to Lakshmi Vilas Bank Ltd.

“Clarity over the excess reserves would have been a critical component of budget deficit estimates,” said R. K. Gurumurthy, head of treasury at Lakshmi Vilas Bank.