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Home / Markets / Stock Markets /  Bull vs bear: US GDP data to Fed meeting — 5 stock market triggers for this week
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Bull vs bear: Following positive global cues, the Dalal Street bulls responded strongly against bears on Friday, which led to sharp upside in Indian stock market. At Friday close, Nifty was up 456.7 points or 2.89 per cent at 16,266 levels. Volumes on the NSE were a little below recent averages. Among sectors realty, metals, capital goods and healthcare indices have gained the most. Advance decline ratio is sharply positive as well.

Speaking on Indian stock market, Sonam Srivastava, Founder at Wright Research said, "This week saw a surprising rebound, but hardly anyone is convinced that this rebound would stick, given the doom and gloom narrative from inflation watchers and central bankers. Autos and FMCG have led the pack this week, and Metals have also shown a steep recovery; nevertheless, the rise of defensives and commodities is a classic bear market move. As a result, the next few weeks will be weeks of caution and risk management."

Advising bulls and bears of Indian stock market to remain vigilant about the triggers that may dictate markets next week, Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart securities said, "This sharp rise should not be taken as trend reversal or market bottom till the gains registered on Friday sustains and market closes above 16,000 levels for at least two sessions. Market investors are also advised to remain vigilant about the US Fed meeting on Wednesday, US first quarter GDP data, Rupee vs dollar movement, dollar index, economic activities in China, quarterly results, etc."

Here we list out top 5 factors that may dictate secondary market next week:

1] US first quarter GDP data: The gross domestic product (GDP) data of US for first quarter is expected on 26th May 2022 i.e. Thursday next week. "If the US GDP data comes below expectations then it may trigger sharp selling in global markets including India. However, in case of improved US GDP data, bulls may further extend their buying spree," said Avinash Gorakshkar.

2] US Fed meeting: The officials of central bank of the United States of America are going to meet on Wednesday next week. Though they have already made an announcement that there will be 50 bps cut in interest rate, more clarity would come after the meeting.

3] Dollar Index: After the US currency climbing to record 20 year high, we have witnessed some retreat in the US dollar. "If the slide in dollar continues then in that case, it may have a positive impact on FIIs and they may cut down or lower their selling at Dalal Street. Weak dollar also leads to lowering margin pressure on oil stocks leading to rise in stock price oil majors," said Avinash Gorakshkar.

4] Economic activities in China: "A higher than expected record cut in China's 5 year PLR for mortgages (for the second time this calendar year) raised hopes for more policy loosening ahead and boosted risk sentiments. This helped Asian and European markets to trade higher," said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities.

"China is largest consumer of metals and momentum in Chinese economy is expected to fuel demand for metals leading to rise in price. So, those who trade in metal stocks are advised to keep an eye on Chinese economic activities in next few weeks," said Avinash Gorakshkar.

5] Global inflation & bond yields: "Many support the FED's decision to hike rates, and many think that they’ll push the economy to ruin with this hike; however, the clear answer to prospects comes from the Bond Yields and the Inflation numbers. These numbers need to watch closely to see if the tensions show any signs of ease," said Sonam Srivastava of Wright Research.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.

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