When stock markets tank, intrepid investors troop in to buy the dip. This time, though, the signs are missing.
With the Iran attack widening into a regional conflict, investor sentiment remains significantly subdued, raising the possibility of further market declines. The flare-up threatens to block crude oil supplies from the region, and fuel a spike in energy prices.
The lack of interest among bulls is reflected by a sharp fall in the cumulative value of marketwide call options (index and stocks) relative to marketwide put options since the war began last Saturday. This, in turn, indicates investors are not buying the dip, a diversion from past occasions, and raises the chances of the Nifty falling as much as 2.7% to 23,800 unless the tensions abate, per analysts.
Simply put, this measure shows that bullish investors and traders are carrying forward fewer long positions despite the market falling nearly 3% since the war began last Saturday through 24,450.45 last Friday.
The value of the marketwide calls exceeded that of marketwide puts by ₹2.71 trillion on Friday, down from ₹4.34 trillion a week ago before the war began, said Rohit Srivastava, founder of analytics firm IndiaCharts.
"This decline clearly indicates that bulls are not buying the dip, in turn reflecting the lingering uncertainty among investors amid the escalation of the West Asia conflict," said Srivastava.
He added that the figure of ₹2.71 trillion worth of excess calls over puts was close to the historic mean of ₹2.5-2.6 trillion, an "anomaly" after the recent market fall. Srivastava cited the sharp bounce in markets a day after the call value exceeded the put value by a record ₹5.4 trillion a day before the Indo-US interim trade deal announcement on 2 February.
The trade deal, which saw US reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods being slashed to 18% from 25% and the 25% punitive tariff being removed, drove the market up 4.8% from 24825.4 on 1 February through a high of 26009.4 on 11 February.
Again, on 13 February, after the value of calls over puts hit ₹5.19 trillion, the Nifty bounced 1.6% from a close of 25471 to a high of 25885.3 on 19 February, cites IndiaCharts .
However, in the current fall since the war began, there has been no such rise in call value, indicating that investors and traders alike remain unsure of buying the dip due to uncertainty over the duration and intensity of the war, says Kruti Shah, quant analyst at Equirus.
"In fact, the near 3% fall in markets last Friday to this one (24450.45 on this Friday) has broken the crucial market support of 24,600, increasing the probability of a further 3% fall to the next critical support zone of 23,800-24,000, unless odds of a ceasefire shorten," said Shah.
Those transacting in marketwide call and put options include retail/HNI, domestic and foreign institutional investors and proprietary traders, NSE data showed. These are constituents who deal in both cash and derivatives market segments.
Fears of a prolonged conflict are spooking market sentiment globally, with the US benchmark Dow Jones having fallen 3% from last Friday to 47,501.55 this Friday, thanks to a 25% jump in Brent crude to $92.35 a barrel over the same period.
The rising price of crude, which stokes inflationary expectations and higher cost of capital across global economies, eroded South Korea's stock benchmark Kospi by 10.6% to 5,584.87 and the Eurozone's Euro Stoxx 50 by 6.8% to 5719.90 in the past week through Friday.
"Net FPI buying witnessed in February has reversed due to the Middle East conflict," notes VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.
"In the first four trading days of March, FPIs sold equity of ₹21,829 crore. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, steady decline in the market, the vulnerability of the Indian economy to sharp crude spike and the sharp depreciation of the rupee contributed to the sustained FII selling in the cash market. FPIs are unlikely to return to the market as buyers until there is some clarity on the outcome of the conflict and decline in the price of crude. Brent crude trading above $ 90 is bad news for the Indian economy and markets," he added.