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Business News/ Markets / Stock Markets/  Diwali 2023: Can Nifty 50 hit 25,000, Sensex touch 75,000 in Samvat 2080? Here's what experts say

Diwali 2023: Can Nifty 50 hit 25,000, Sensex touch 75,000 in Samvat 2080? Here's what experts say

Nifty 50 is expected to end Samvat 2079 with decent gains despite headwinds, and Samvat 2080 is expected to see robust growth.

Samvat 2080 is expected to see robust growth in both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex (Unsplash)Premium
Samvat 2080 is expected to see robust growth in both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex (Unsplash)

With an over 9 per cent gain since last Diwali, the Nifty 50 is going to end Samvat 2079 with decent gains despite multiple headwinds, including high inflation, elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

Samvat 2080 is expected to see robust growth in both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, despite the anticipation of a somewhat turbulent market ascent. Experts find the outlook for the Indian market promising with an imminent peak in the US interest rate landscape.

However, uncertainty on the geopolitical front remains a concern, while on the domestic front, General Elections, inflation and interest rate trajectory are the key factors that will influence the market.

Also Read: Stock Markets and Diwali 2023: What could be the top challenges before Nifty 50 in Samvat 2080? Analysts explain

We talked to several experts to gain insights into their expectations regarding the market's trajectory in Samvat 2080 and the potential milestones the Nifty 50 may reach in the new Samvat. Here's what they said:

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Fundamental views

G. Chokkalingam, Founder and Head of Research at Equinomics Research

The domestic equity market could rise 15 per cent and the Sensex could rise to 75,000 by the next Diwali. Maintaining above 6 per cent GDP growth would be a major trigger for this gain. Over 6 per cent growth would be the fastest among major economies in the world and therefore, we can expect significant net inflow from the FPIs.

Apart from fast GDP growth, robust capex plans of corporate, and State and Central governments, strong credit growth of the banking industry, successful PLI schemes and bilateral relationships with many economies and robust continued inflow of retail investors would help the markets to gain around 15 per cent in the next one year.

However, any possible mandate from the forthcoming General Election, which leads to political instability or any possible spike in global oil prices (due to strong recovery in global economic growth) significantly beyond $120 a barrel will lead to Sensex falling below 55,000. These are two key risk factors for the domestic market in the next one year.

Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities

The Nifty 50 is likely to trade with a positive bias and witness a pre-election rally since only about six months are remaining for the Lok Sabha Elections. A fall in the US 10-year bond yields from the recent high of 5 per cent is also likely to support the uptrend.

We have a positive outlook on the Nifty till the elections. Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 18,500 to 21,500 till the next Samvat. We believe that investors can lighten up their equity portfolio by by-elections and switch it to gold or long-term debt to take advantage of the high interest rates.

Santosh Pandey, President and Head, Nuvama Professional Clients Group

Nifty would have crossed 20,000 very convincingly before the next Samvat. My worry is only short term as there are series of events like state elections, General Election, US inflation, US bond yields and the ongoing war.

These issues would add volatility in the markets and tell us to be cautious about the markets but at the same time, I am not worried about markets, however, would like to be vigilant.

Having said this there are many sectors like capital goods, power, paper, sugar and many specific mid and small caps that are very interesting buys at these levels also.

Sunil Nyati, Managing Director of Swastika Investmart

As the election year approaches, Indian equities have the potential to experience robust gains in the upcoming year due to several factors, including the forthcoming General Elections in May 2024, with a victory for the ruling party expected to provide a significant boost.

This presents an opportune moment for traders and investors to consider crafting a short-term portfolio. The overall outlook for the Indian equity market appears exceptionally bullish, underpinned by robust fundamentals and domestic liquidity.

Furthermore, FIIs have reduced their holdings in the Indian equity market due to a combination of factors, including the global economic situation, the rising cost of capital, and the domestic political environment. If the elections result in the ruling party securing a majority, the Nifty is likely to continue its upward trajectory of 24,000, as it has in the past.

However, if the elections result in a different outcome, there is a risk of a short-term global recession or geopolitical tensions that could disrupt the stock markets and lead to a period of uncertainty, which could send the Nifty lower.

With the Indian elections looming and an impending peak in the interest rate environment in the US, the outlook for the Indian equity markets is positive.

It is expected that gold and equities will both perform well in the coming months, with gold that might further benefit from the anticipated economic slowdown in the US in 2024.

My preferred choice for investment leans heavily toward Indian equities as the favoured asset class, the Indian equity markets are poised to outshine not only gold but also other global markets.

Also Read: Diwali 2023: Where do experts see gold prices in Samvat 2080?

Technical views

Gaurav Bissa, VP, InCred Equities

Nifty has been in a strong uptrend on the monthly charts. The index came out of an 18-month consolidation which pushed it towards the 20,000 levels. The correction witnessed in the index since then has been slow implying it is likely to witness some time correction but not a major price correction in the coming time.

Many of the major sectors like banking, auto and FMCG remain strong which are likely to restrict the losses in Nifty. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD have cooled off from higher levels and are witnessing a range move currently which supports the postulation of a limited correction in the index.

The index is expected to witness a time and a small price correction for the next few months which can later result in an upside to 22,000 levels by mid-next year.

Also Read: Samvat 2080: Chola Securities lists top 9 stocks for Diwali; RIL among fundamental picks, DLF among technicals

Shiju Koothupalakkal, Technical Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd

The Nifty index which was precariously placed with the overall bias maintained a very cautious approach and with the 19,200-19,250 zone decisively breached, the bias has improved to some extent with further move expected till 19,500-19,550 levels.

Technically, the major support zone lies near the 18,850 and 18,600 levels of the significant 200 period MA (moving average) and for the medium-term to longer-term time frame, the overall bias is positive for Indian markets with much upside potential visible and one can pick for the quality stocks expecting good returns.

Nifty has overall indicated a positive trend reversal since August 2022 in the longer-term timeframe and is in an ascending trend with the next one-year target expected till 24,000 and 26,000 levels as per the trend-based Fibonacci extension with most of the frontline stocks underperforming in the last one to two quarters and so has an immense upside potential to pull the index to new heights.

Also Read: Diwali 2023 stocks: PL lists 6 largecaps, 7 mid and smallcaps, and 8 technical picks for this festive season

Anu Jain, President – Equity Brokerage and Rishi Asrani, Senior VP – Equity Brokerage, 360 ONE Wealth

Nifty, on the monthly timeframe, has been moving in a rising trend channel. In the past, it can be observed the mid-point of the channel has acted as a support excluding the 2020 pandemic fall.

The ongoing rising trend channel and Fibonacci extension suggest the rise can extend to 20,600-21,600 levels. Considering the near-term state elections and global macro uncertainty, retracements in case of correction should find support in the zone of 18,100.

The recent low made around 18,840 took support around the peak made in November 2022, which is the immediate support for the index. The immediate upside resistance for the index is at 19,600, which happens to be the downtrend line drawn from the peak of 2022.

Nifty EPS (earnings per share) is expected to grow by nearly 12 per cent in FY25 to 1,075, applying a 20 times P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple to it. We think Nifty at 21,500 will be fairly valued. A 20 times multiple will still be at a discount compared to the last 5 and 10-year average and marginally higher than the 19 times average P/E for Nifty since early 2000.

Also Read: Samvat 2080: Sharekhan suggests 15 stocks including DLF, Tata Motors to buy this Diwali; check complete list

Read all market-related news here

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Published: 07 Nov 2023, 02:41 PM IST
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