Diwali 2023: Up around 10% in Samvat 2079, will Nifty give double-digit returns in Samvat 2080?
The Indian market created history in Samvat 2079 by hitting milestone after milestone. The Nifty touched 20,000 on 11th September 2023 and the BSE Sensex surpassed 67,900 that day, both gaining almost 10 percent during Samvat 2079.
The Indian market created history in Samvat 2079 by hitting milestone after milestone. The Nifty touched 20,000 on 11th September 2023 and the BSE Sensex surpassed 67,900 that day, both gaining almost 10 percent during Samvat 2079. The Nifty Midcap and Smallcap outperformed and gained 24 percent and 31 percent, respectively.
The upside in the Indian market is exceptional considering the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Palestine war, high global inflation, rising crude prices, peak US 10-year yield, and consumption slowdown. The up-move was driven by all classes of investors.
Among sectors, Samvat 2079 belonged to the Nifty Real Estate (+37.5 percent), Nifty PSU Bank (+42.6 percent), Nifty Auto (+18.6 percent), and Nifty FMCG (+15.7 percent).
Going ahead, will this bull run continue in Samvat 2080 or the Indian market would come under the pressure of macro headwinds? Let's see what experts predict.
Ajit Mishra - SVP, Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd
Markets have posted double-digit gains since the last Samvat and are likely to maintain this bias ahead as well. However, volatility could be on the higher side due to the scheduled general election next year. Apart from the domestic factors, global cues play an important part in setting the market tone and the prevailing scenario is not offering any clarity over the next directional move yet. Going ahead, improved sentiment on the global front, especially in the US markets, could further fuel the positivity.
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Pranav Haridasan, MD & CEO, Axis Securities
We embark on this new Samvat with a narrative marked by ‘Higher for Longer’ interest rates, volatile bond yields, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and fluctuating oil prices. However, on the domestic front, the prospects for the Indian economy appear notably brighter and more promising. Amid a volatile global landscape, India remains in a favourable position for growth, which will be a significant driving force behind Indian equities in the foreseeable future. The improvement in the balance sheet strength of corporate India and the much-improved health of the Indian banking system are other positive attributes. They will ensure that Indian equities readily deliver double-digit returns in the next 2-3 years with the support of double-digit earnings growth.
Sunil Nyati, Managing Director of Swastika Investmart Ltd.
As the election year approaches, Indian equities have the potential to experience robust gains in the upcoming year due to several factors, including the forthcoming Assembly elections in May 2024, with a victory for the ruling party expected to provide a significant boost. This presents an opportune moment for traders and investors to consider crafting a short-term portfolio.
The overall outlook for the Indian equity market appears exceptionally bullish, underpinned by robust fundamentals and domestic liquidity. Furthermore, FIIs have reduced their holdings in the Indian equity market due to a combination of factors, including the global economic situation, the rising cost of capital, and the domestic political environment. If the elections result in the ruling party securing a majority, the Nifty is likely to continue its upward trajectory of 24,000, as it has in the past. However, if the elections result in a different outcome, there is a risk of a short-term global recession or geopolitical tensions that could disrupt the stock markets and lead to a period of uncertainty, which could send the Nifty lower.
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research
As we look ahead, the central bankers, finance ministries, as well as investors, will struggle with inflation that is proving to be sticky so far (led by supply issues in commodities) and the resultant high interest rates. If this situation is not resolved soon, a global economic slowdown cannot be averted. The new conflict in the Middle East (Israel-Hamas) in addition to the existing Russia-Ukraine conflict could divert resources, and attention and curb the risk appetite of investors globally.
Going forward, we expect markets to be volatile till the 1st half of 2024 even as the outcome of state and central elections will be watched closely as would be the repercussions of the two geo-political events. Though the local fund inflows have remained robust, we would need a resumption of FPI flows once the global risk appetite revives.
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Trivesh D, COO, Tradejini
As we enter Samvat 2080, the economic outlook for India is remarkably promising, underscored by its emerging preeminence as a manufacturing hub. The equity market, reflective of the country’s growth trajectory, is ripe with opportunities, particularly within sectors poised for innovation and global reach, such as AI and semiconductors. Equities in the manufacturing and technology sectors not only represent financial instruments but also the pulse of India's innovative capabilities and industrial ambitions. The formal investment discourse for Samvat 2080 revolves around identifying and leveraging these growth vectors, which are set to define India's economic narrative in the coming years.
Harjeet Singh Arora, Managing Director at Mastertrust
In light of mounting fundamental tailwinds, the market is poised to sustain its prevailing bullish momentum into Vikram Samvat 2080. Renowned global banks and financial institutions have clearly expressed optimism towards the Indian market. The stage of a bullish scenario is being set by strong corporate performance, overwhelming domestic economic numbers, and growing expectations of the return of the Modi government, known for its pro-business policies. FDI inflows in India stood at US $ 45.15 billion in 2014-2015 which has increased to the highest ever FDI at $83.6 billion in 2021-2022. The bullish sentiment is further bolstered by the speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hike cycle, a factor contributing to the positive market outlook.
Kunal Ambasta, Co- Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Liquide
Indian economy is on the brink of massive growth, driven by a combination of strong fundamentals, the infusion of new-age investors, impressive corporate earnings, and a burgeoning middle class with increased consumer spending. With GDP growth estimated at 6.3 percent for 2023-24 and inflation expected to remain relatively stable ( around 5 percent), substantial outperformance looks more likely.
Going forward, most experts expect markets to be volatile till the 1st half of 2024 even as the outcome of state and general elections will be watched closely, however, for the full year the experts are extremely bullish on the Indian market as well as the economy and see this bull run continuing in Samvat 2080.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of MintGenie. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.Pranav Haridasan, MD & CEO, Axis Securities
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