Expert view: Crypto long-duration hedge against dollar debasement, sovereign debt, says Blue Aster Capital founder, CEO

Expert view: Sidharth Sogani Jain, founder, CEO and fund manager at Blue Aster Capital and CREBACO Global, believes gold, crude oil, and crypto hedge different problems, so investors should avoid choosing between them. In an interview with Mint, Jain said crypto is the long-duration hedge against dollar debasement and sovereign debt. It has a fundamentally different underlying, and one should have at least 7.5% exposure to Bitcoin in this situation. Edited excerpts:

The West Asian crisis has shot up crude oil prices, but weighed on gold. Investors also appear to be keeping cryptos in focus. How should we look at these asset classes amid persisting geopolitical uncertainties?

I look at these three as running on completely different aspects. Crude is the immediate one.

With the Strait of Hormuz disruptions affecting 10–15 million barrels a day, markets are now pricing nearly a 50% probability of WTI touching $110.

Gold, sitting near $4,800 an ounce with JP Morgan projecting $5,055 by Q4, is the medium-term hedge, and its recent softness is just consolidation, not weakness.

Crypto, for me, is the long-duration hedge against dollar debasement and sovereign debt. I don't think investors should choose between them; they hedge different problems.

However, crypto has a different underlying fundamentally and in the given situation, at least 7.5% exposure should be to Bitcoin.

Do you believe the market cycles in 2026 show we are heading toward a structural shift?

Absolutely, and I think most people are underestimating it. The classic four-year halving cycle is visibly breaking down- 2025 closed red, which historically never happens in a post-halving year.

What's driving prices today is not retail euphoria but ETF flows and institutional balance sheets.

Crypto space is getting most of its traction from institutions, which means it's more regulated now.

And institutions alone absorbed over 64,000 BTC in April 2026, tokenised real-world assets have crossed $36 billion.

To me, this is the moment crypto stops behaving like a speculative cycle and starts behaving like an asset class- closer to equities than to the meme-coin trade we knew in 2021.

Is Bitcoin the new gold or a new hedge against uncertainties?

I get asked this often, and my honest view is that Bitcoin is not replacing gold- it is sitting next to it. Gold is still the reserve asset central banks trust.

Bitcoin is the sovereign-neutral, digital hedge for a world that is worried about currency debasement, capital controls and counterparty risk.

Their 30-day correlation keeps swinging between negative and positive, which tells you they are hedging different fears.

With just BlackRock's IBIT now at $55 billion in AUM, Bitcoin has clearly earned a permanent seat at the table, a 2.7 trillion dollar crypto market size with Bitcoin dominating to about $1.7 trillion. But it has not taken gold's throne, and frankly, it does not need to.

What could drive the next bull cycle in crypto?

I see four forces lining up. First, sovereign and institutional adoption- ETF AUMs are at record highs, and exchange supply keeps shrinking.

Second, stablecoins, now a $300-billion-plus market, are quietly becoming dollar-distribution infrastructure for the emerging world.

Third, real-world asset tokenisation, which grew 266% in 2025- that is the bridge between TradFi and crypto rails.

And fourth, macro liquidity returning as rate cuts and fiscal expansion play out. Unlike 2021, this cycle won't be powered by Twitter narratives- it will be powered by flows. That, in my experience, makes for a much more durable bull market.

Cryptos are highly volatile. How should retail investors invest? What is the ideal size one should hold?

Volatility is the price you pay for asymmetric upside- Bitcoin has still moved three to four times the S&P.

So I tell retail investors very plainly: treat crypto as a satellite, not the core.

For someone conservative, 3 to 5% of net worth is enough. Moderate investors can go up to 10%, and aggressive ones should not cross 15%.

Within that allocation, I personally favour a 70-20-10 split between Bitcoin, Ethereum and a small basket of high-conviction names. Always SIP, never lump-sum into a rally.

Use cold storage above $10,000. And never, ever invest borrowed money. For institutions, use the custodian structures or structures which we offer.

How do you see AI shaping the investing world? Is AI actually influencing trading decisions today?

AI is already running the market quietly. Over 70% of US equity volume is machine-executed, and the algorithmic trading market is projected to be $44.5 billion in 2026, heading to $71 billion by 2034.

In my own funds, AI now sits across execution, sentiment parsing, risk overlays and rebalancing. What used to take my research team a week now takes a few hours.

The real shift, in my view, is that the edge is moving from information access- which is now commoditised- to interpretation speed.

Retail investors who don't start using AI tools will, very quickly, find themselves at a structural disadvantage.

Read more stories by Nishant Kumar

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.