Expert view: Samvat 2081 was a smart pause, Indian stock market ready to hit highs in Samvat 2082, says Tradejini COO

Expert view: Trivesh D, COO of Tradejini, says Samvat 2081 was not a disappointment but a smart pause before the next growth stage. He believes that if Indian corporate earnings remain strong, the Nifty may hit new highs much before the next Diwali. In an interview with Mint, Trivesh shared his views on markets, sectors where he sees value and key themes to invest in. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:

How do you assess the market performance in Samvat 2081? What led to the muted market returns?

Samvat 2081 proved to be a year of stabilisation after two years of robust double-digit expansion.

The market corrected by nearly 16 per cent by April 2025 from the September 2024 peaks, primarily due to continued FII (foreign institutional investors) outflows that kept sentiment in the doldrums.

The moderate tax relief in the budget failed to have an impact, while global headwinds, including the Israel–Hamas war, the risk of tariffs, and weak Q4 earnings, took the momentum out of the market.

With that said, local inflows from mutual funds and individual investors injected much-needed stability. In all, Samvat 2081 was not a disappointment, but a smart pause — a breather that may lay the foundation for the next growth stage.

What is your outlook for the Nifty 50 for Samvat 2082? What level do you see it at by next Diwali?

Markets appear ready to move beyond the consolidation range. The macro environment is positive, inflation is reducing, fiscal balance is being restored, and corporate debt levels are at multi-year lows.

Yet, valuations are still on the higher end, with some sectors being way above historical means.

India still maintains a premium globally, so the next leg of upside will be based on earnings growth, which will justify these valuations.

If corporate earnings remain strong, we may see the Nifty capture new highs well before the next Diwali.

What pockets do you see value in?

We see selective value returning in private banks, NBFCs, capital goods, and consumption-led businesses, which are benefiting from GST and tax reforms.

PSUs and defence remain solid plays on the government’s capital expenditure cycle.

There’s also emerging interest in digital infrastructure and logistics platforms.

The broader focus should be on companies with strong balance sheets and visible cash flows, rather than chasing short-lived rallies in AI or commodities.

When do you expect earnings to see a material revival?

Earnings recovery has already begun in some sectors, and it is expected to spread to more by Q4 FY26.

Lower input costs, stable crude prices, and improved pricing power are supporting the automotive, financial, and consumer-facing sectors.

With recent GST reductions and strong September auto sales, the earnings momentum appears to be sustained.

If global volatility remains under control and domestic demand is sustained, we would expect to see stronger, broad-based growth in the next two quarters.

What are the key themes that you would recommend investors focus on for the next one to two years?

The Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative in defence and capital goods will be the overarching long-term narrative.

India's next growth cycle is being built on local manufacturing, green energy, defence, and digital finance sectors, which align with the nation's self-reliance objectives.

Opportunities are growing in renewables, data centres, and quick-commerce ecosystems.

A diversified portfolio with a leading private bank, a defence manufacturer, and a renewable energy participant can enable investors to tap into both cyclical and structural growth themes.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.