Expert View: What's the biggest risk for HNI investors’ portfolio today? Rahul Roy Chowdhury of Geojit Financial answers

As Indian stock market volatility heightens, Rahul Roy Chowdhury, CEO - Private Wealth Services, Geojit Financial Services, said he prefers to review, rebalance, and communicate rationally with his clients to maintain disciplined asset allocation and avoid deviating due to near-term market movements. While he believes the recent stock market correction has improved valuations, it is not an all-clear signal. In this interaction with Mint, he offers insights on how to add commodities to a portfolio, avoid recency bias and navigate stock market crashes. Edited excerpts:

Markets have turned volatile, impacting investor confidence. What has been keeping you busy lately—client concerns or managing market moves?

The correction in broader Indian markets began around October 2025 and unfolded in phases, with volatility escalating into early 2026 and becoming quite sharp by March. What has kept us busy is not trying to predict every market tick but helping clients avoid making long-term decisions based on short-term anxiety. At Geojit Private Wealth, our engagement model is simple: review, rebalance, and communicate with rationale. A large part of these conversations has been reinforcing the importance of sticking to disciplined asset allocation and not deviating because of near-term market movements.

What do you see as the biggest risk for any HNI investor’s portfolio today?

The biggest risk is concentration disguised as conviction. In wealthy portfolios, recency bias often arrives through recent winners and feels smarter than it really is. We run a portfolio review matrix that separates concentration, liquidity, valuation, and goal alignment before making allocation changes. Trimming winners can feel painful because narratives often look strongest near the point when sizing discipline matters most. Many portfolios are not hurt by one bad idea; they are hurt when one good idea quietly becomes too big.

Has the current stock market environment influenced how HNIs are allocating money recently?

Yes, but mainly through pacing rather than panic. When valuations were stretched, we slowed entry; now that the risk-reward balance is better, we are more willing to add selectively. This is a better entry environment than a year ago, but it is not an all-clear signal.

The stock market returns have been nil for almost two years. Should one conclude that stock picking, and not index investing, is the right way to make money in the market?

Markets move in cycles, and during consolidation phases, dispersion between index returns and individual stocks tends to widen, creating opportunities for skilled managers to generate alpha. This is typically when disciplined stock selection and risk management add value over passive exposure. That said, index investing continues to play an important role in portfolios. We deliberately adopt an open-architecture approach in manager selection, which is why we spend more time underwriting the jockey than defending a product shelf.

Last year it was gold, and this year it is oil that has influenced market returns. If one is to allocate to commodities, how should one decide which one to pick?

For most investors, commodities should diversify and hedge a portfolio—not become the portfolio. Direct exposure to oil is not practical for most investors. For precious metals like gold and silver, we generally prefer multi-asset funds and ETFs, since they keep the allocation disciplined within a larger strategy. Typically, keeping about 5–10% of the portfolio in precious metals, depending on a client’s risk tolerance, works well.

How do you handle market drawdowns or crashes? What did you do during major events like the COVID-19 market crash?

Market pullbacks are part of the deal: you’re likely to see a 10% dip most years, a 20% drop every five years or so, and a major 30–50% plunge at least once a decade. It’s simply how markets behave. When a "black swan" event hits, the worst thing an investor can do is react emotionally, panic, and sell. History has repeatedly shown that the most important move is to stay the course. In difficult markets, process matters: we communicate early, not after the damage is done.

Globally, brokerages have downgraded Indian stock market prospects for most retail investors with India-focused portfolios. Should investors introduce foreign stocks, and how?

Yes. Most affluent India-heavy portfolios should own some global equity—not because the India story is broken, but because concentration itself is a risk. The recent dip in Indian markets is simply a cooling-off period after a strong run from the post-COVID period through 2024. Valuations had become stretched, so some correction was natural. While current sentiment is cautious, the long-term structural story remains strong. That said, in a globalised world, relying on one country alone isn’t prudent. Investing abroad isn’t just about chasing extra returns; it’s about spreading risk so you aren’t tied to the fate of a single economy. We typically recommend allocating about 15–20% of a portfolio to global equities (developed and emerging) as a core part of a long-term strategy. Global diversification is not a verdict against India; it is simply good portfolio hygiene.

What’s your current view on asset allocation across equities, debt, and alternatives?

Asset allocation should begin with goals, but if I had to summarise the current market stance in one line, it would be this: quality equity, useful carry in debt, market-neutral strategies, and alternatives used selectively—not decoratively. Alternatives can improve resilience, but only if liquidity, fees, taxes, and transparency are fully understood. Ultimately, a balanced mix of domestic equity, global exposure, tax-efficient debt, and select alternatives is a good way to keep a portfolio resilient through any market cycle. Our role is not to sell complexity; it is to keep the allocation honest.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.