FOMC meeting minutes to gold prices: Top five triggers for Indian stock market this week

Stock market next week: Buoyed by the stronger-than-anticipated showing of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2025 Bihar elections, the Sensex bounced back by over 500 points from its intraday low to close in positive territory on Friday, November 14.

Earlier in the day, the Indian stock market was largely under pressure due to a global selloff, with the Sensex falling to an intraday low of 84,029.32 and the Nifty 50 slipping to 25,740.80 during the session.

“Markets staged a strong rebound during the week, ending firmly in the green after the recent phase of weakness. Sentiment was upbeat from the start, supported by favourable domestic cues, though volatility in the later sessions—driven largely by mixed global developments—capped the overall momentum. Despite this, both benchmark indices gained over one and a half per cent, with the Nifty closing at 25,910.05 and the Sensex settling at 84,562.78,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

According to Mishra, the sharp drop in inflation, paired with stable macroeconomic fundamentals, offers a supportive backdrop for equities.

“Investors should continue to adopt a stock-specific approach, with preference for sectors benefiting from domestic demand. For traders, a buy-on-dips strategy remains favourable as long as the Nifty sustains above key support levels. Considering the critical domestic and global macro data lined up, maintaining disciplined risk management, appropriate stop-loss levels, and timely sector rotation will be essential,” Mishra added.

Top five triggers for the Indian stock market

FOMC meeting minutes

The US September jobs report from the Bureau of Labour Statistics is expected on November 20. However, it remains unclear whether the October data will be released, as the government shutdown disrupted data collection efforts.

“Globally, market mood will be shaped by key U.S. economic releases, including the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting,” Mishra said.

AI-related stocks

AI-related stocks were in the limelight last week, as a sharp sell-off led to a steep decline in Wall Street indices. Nvidia—widely seen as the top market beneficiary of the AI surge—recovered from a sharp early decline to end with a modest 0.1% gain, helping lift broader market indices along the way.

“Globally, cues remained largely positive early in the week, especially from the U.S. markets. However, renewed volatility in AI-related stocks toward the end of the week triggered bouts of choppiness across global markets, including India,” Mishra said.

He added that the ongoing volatility in AI-linked stocks will remain a key factor to watch, given its potential to influence broader market sentiment.

India-US trade deal

According to the ANI report, another round of trade talks between the United States and India may not be required, as both countries continue to address sensitive matters and discuss access to key sectors.

The report also noted that during his September visit to the US, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal mentioned that India has recognised “new proposals,” including plans to purchase corn for ethanol production, aligning with the country’s push for ethanol-compatible vehicles.

Both India and the United States have held five rounds of official talks so far and are likely to conclude the first phase of the BTA agreement by the end of this year.

“Any incremental developments in India–U.S. trade negotiations, along with policy signals on growth and liquidity, could provide the next set of triggers for market direction this week,” said Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money.

FII Activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold Indian equities worth ₹13,925 crore from November 1 to November 14, indicating a significant increase in selling activity during the first half of the month. The outflows have gained momentum in recent days, influenced by changing global investment trends and a shift toward other major markets.

For 2025, till now, total FII sell figures through exchanges stand at ₹208126 crores. And the total buy figure for the primary market stands at ₹62125 crores.

"The selling by FIIs accelerated on the last few days of the week, and the total FII sell figure for November up to 14th November stood at ₹13925 crores. The long-term trend of FII buying/investing through the primary market continues with an investment of ₹7833 crores so far in November.

The underperformance of India vs other markets has accelerated the momentum sell trade in India and buy trade in other markets, particularly those like the US, China, Taiwan and South Korea, which are widely regarded as the beneficiaries of the ongoing AI trade. However, this AI trade cannot continue for long since there are concerns of a bubble building up in AI stocks. When the AI trade loses steam, India will attract FII inflows. The timing of this is difficult to predict," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Gold prices

Domestic gold prices on the futures market ended the week in positive territory, despite a sharp selloff on Thursday. On Friday, gold closed at ₹123,400 per 10 grams on the MCX, down 2.64% due to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials, which weighed on the metal’s appeal.

Yet, gold still gained over ₹2,000, or nearly 2%, over the week. Its steady climb in recent days had rekindled investor optimism that the metal might retest its all-time high of ₹132,000, after trading within a tight range for almost a month.

“Gold prices stayed weak after yesterday's evening’s sell-off, as comments from Federal Reserve members suggesting that the lack of fresh economic data could delay further rate cuts dampened sentiment in bullion. The dollar index strengthened, adding additional pressure on gold. Prices slipped from this week’s high of ₹1,27,000 to ₹1,25,600 but still hold weekly gains of around 4%. Gold is expected to remain volatile within a range of ₹1,24,000– ₹1,27,500,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Technical levels

According to Mishra, market breadth improved, with more stocks participating in the up-move. While the broader indices maintained a constructive tone, smallcaps showed signs of fatigue, suggesting a more selective market environment ahead.

Commenting on the Nifty outlook, he said, “ The Nifty has been consolidating for nearly four weeks and now appears poised to surpass its immediate hurdle at 26,100. A breakout could open the path toward the record high of 26,277.35 and subsequently 26,500. On the downside, 25,650—the 20-DEMA zone—acts as crucial support, followed by 25,400.”

Meanwhile, on Bank Nifty outlook, Mishra said, “ The banking index hit a new lifetime high during the week and continues to show strong momentum. The setup indicates a gradual move toward the 59,500–60,500 zone. Immediate support lies in the 57,200–57,700 range.”

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