After months of relentless selling since March, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) finally turned net buyers in July, investing ₹15,412 crore in Indian equities.
The inflow follows net outflows of ₹49,340 crore in June, ₹32,963 crore in May, ₹60,847 crore in April and a massive ₹1.17 trillion in March, according to data from the National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL).
Despite July's turnaround, FPIs have pulled out a net ₹2.59 trillion from Indian equities so far in 2026, far exceeding the ₹1.66 trillion withdrawn during calendar year 2025.
Before the selling spree began, FPIs had invested ₹22,615 crore in Indian equities in February.
Commenting on the shift, Rajesh Singla, CEO and fund manager at Alpha AMC, noted that July marked “the first meaningful positive turn since the US-Iran conflict broke out in February, driven by geopolitical de-escalation, easing crude prices, and improving global risk appetite.”
Adding another dimension, Karan Aggarwal, co-founder and CIO at Ametra PMS, said FPIs had spent two years building long positions in the Asian artificial intelligence (AI) trade while hedging them by remaining short on India.
This, he said, explains why foreign investors maintained a near-90% net short position on index options for almost 18 months.
“As Korea and Taiwan AI trade is being wound up, India large-cap was expected to see a short covering rally which explains the selling pause in July 2026.” During this month, FPIs pulled out $12.5 billion from South Korea while they sold equities worth $23.4 billion from Taiwan.
Still, experts see this as a temporary breather rather than a permanent return. “This is tactical repositioning by global funds sensing a better entry point, not a structural reallocation to India, " Singla added. He added that continued buying depends on whether crude stays contained, the rupee stabilizes, and Q1 FY27 earnings deliver.
Sharp divergence
Interestingly, while FPIs were dumping shares in the secondary market, they remained active buyers in the primary market. Year-to-date, FPIs have pulled over ₹2 trillion out of secondary markets while net-investing nearly ₹33,000crore in primary markets.
“This divergence suggests that foreign investors were not necessarily negative on India; they were becoming more selective about valuations and opportunities,” noted Saurabh Patwa, head of equity & portfolio manager, Quest Investment Managers.
“Secondary-market selling often reflects portfolio-level rebalancing and global liquidity requirements, whereas primary-market investments allow investors to access new businesses, structural themes and larger allocations at negotiated or market-tested valuations. The continued participation in primary issuances therefore indicates that FPIs remained interested in India-specific opportunities even while reducing broader market exposure,” he added.
Geopolitical tensions had initially slowed IPO activity, with mainboard and SME issues raising just ₹26,338 crore through June following two years of unprecedented momentum. However, market sentiment improved in July amid a pause and de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, helping companies raise ₹29,235 crore in the month alone, showed data from primedatabase.com. Backed by a healthy pipeline of upcoming issues, FPI participation is expected to remain strong.
Fading dependance
The shift in flows accompanied a 1.6% monthly gain for the frontline index Sensex. However, foreign inflows may not have been the primary driver— in the preceding month, the index rose by 2.3% despite FPI sell-offs.
In fact, FPIs were net sellers in five of the last six months, yet Indian markets still managed to log positive returns in months like April and June. This triggers a broader question: Has the market's dependence on FPI flows weakened, or have domestic flows completely decoupled India from foreign capital trends?
The latest ownership data offers key clues. Aggregate FPI holding across 4,500 companies dropped to 14.4% in the June quarter—a 14-year low. Foreign ownership declined by 160 basis points (bps) over the past year, while mutual fund stakes rose 100 bps to 11.5%.
Even so, market experts caution against oversimplifying the shift.
“India’s dependence on FPI flows has certainly reduced as domestic institutional and household participation has deepened, providing the market with a more stable source of capital. This explains why markets could deliver positive returns in some months despite sustained foreign selling,” said Patwa.
Still he notes that it would be premature to suggest that India has completely decoupled from global capital flows. FPIs still influence liquidity, valuations, currency movements and short-term market direction.
“The important change is that foreign selling no longer automatically determines the market’s trajectory; domestic flows and corporate earnings now provide a much stronger counterbalance,” he explained.
DII buffer
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have absorbed most of the foreign selling this year.
All the while, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been absorbing the bulk of FPI sell-offs. Year-to-date, DIIs have invested a littleover ₹5 trillion, easily offsetting net FPI outflows of ₹2.58 trillion. In July alone, domestic institutions pumped in around ₹35,000 crore. This momentum is anchored by strong retail participation—driven by monthly SIP inflows consistently topping ₹25,000 crore. On the other hand, direct equity investments from retail investors exceeded ₹36,000 crore year-to-date.
However, market experts warn that this domestic safety net can face some liquidity constraints.
According to Aggarwal, DIIs are sitting at lowest cash levels in 24 months, indicating they might not be able to support the scale of FPI selling seen over the past 18 months.
“In reality, FPIs were selling because DIIs were supporting the prices. As lower liquidity available with DIIs creates a headwind, it is very difficult for markets to break the 23600-24800 range on either side.”