From Gift Nifty, US-Iran peace talks to crude oil prices: 10 things that changed for Indian stock market over weekend

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Monday, following mixed cues from global markets, amid progress in the US-Iran peace talks, but rising crude oil prices and bond yields increased risks of higher inflation and US interest rate hike.

Asian markets traded mostly higher, while the US stock futures declined, as investors monitor latest developments in the US-Iran peace talks.

On Friday, the Indian stock market ended lower, snapping its five-session winning streak, amid a sharp selloff in information technology stocks.

The Sensex declined 607.08 points, or 0.78%, to close at 76,802.90, while the Nifty 50 settled 154.90 points, or 0.64%, lower at 24,013.10.

“Given the prevailing mixed setup, we continue to advocate a stock-specific approach, favouring relative outperformers while maintaining disciplined risk management,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded higher on Monday on progress over the US-Iran peace talks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied 1.75% while the Topix gained 1.17%. South Korea’s Kospi surged 1.54%, while the Kosdaq declined 0.57%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.4%.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 24,154 level, a premium of nearly 97 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock futures fell on interest rate hike risks as investors watched the latest developments in the US-Iran peace talks. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures declined 0.7%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4%. US stock market was closed on Friday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth, a federal holiday commemorating the end of slavery in the United States.

US-Iran War

Iranian negotiators said progress had been made in peace talks with the United States, helping calm fears the process was breaking down. Officials from Qatar and Pakistan released a statement saying the first session of talks had concluded and progress was made on a roadmap to reach a final deal in 60 days.

China LPR

China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 13th consecutive month in June. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.50%.

RBI MPC Meeting Minutes

All six members of the RBI’s MPC favoured a wait-and-watch approach as they voted for a status quo on benchmark interest rates earlier this month, citing high uncertainty over the trajectory of inflation and growth prospects due to the US-Iran war, according to the minutes of the MPC meeting.

Japanese bond yields

Japanese government bond (JGB) yields extended gains for a third day, amid rising inflation and fiscal concerns. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 3 bps to 2.675%.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices rose after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed while talks between US and Iranian officials were off to a bumpy start. Brent crude futures gained 0.83% to $81.24 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rallied 2.04% to $77.40 a barrel.

Gold Rate Today

Gold prices rose over 1%, rebounding from a more than one-week low hit in the previous session, aon easing concerns around inflation and higher interest rates. Spot gold price gained 1.2% to $4,209.03 per ounce, while US gold futures for August delivery fell 0.5% to $4,225.80. Spot silver price rallied 2.6% to $66.60 per ounce.

Dollar

The dollar was firm as uncertainty clouded a tentative US-Iran peace deal. The pound fell 0.24% to $1.32055, while the euro eased 0.1% to $1.1462. The Japanese yen slipped to 161.53 per dollar, hovering near a two-year low reached last week.

(With inputs from Agencies)