Gold rate today: Experts unveil investment strategy ahead of RBI MPC meeting amid focus on strengthening INR against USD

Gold rate today: Gold prices surged sharply on Tuesday, climbing ₹1,444 to a new all-time high of ₹1,17,788 per 10 grams in the domestic futures market, mirroring strong gains overseas.

The rally was fueled by investor concerns over a potential US government shutdown and growing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

On the MCX, December gold futures advanced for the fourth consecutive session, rising ₹1,444 or over 1% to touch a record high of ₹1,17,788 per 10 grams. Likewise, the February 2026 contract jumped ₹1,578 or 1.34%, marking a fresh lifetime high of ₹1,19,052 per 10 grams.

Silver surged to new highs on Tuesday, with December futures rising by ₹1,231, or 0.86%, to reach an all-time peak of ₹1,44,330 per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Why are gold, silver prices rising?

Increased safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty, concerns over potential US government shutdown, and hopes for US Fed rate cuts are driving gold prices higher.

“Gold and silver extended their gain and continue their super bullish momentum at the start of the week. Precious metals prices climbed to a record high, driven by safe-haven demand amid concerns over a potential US government shutdown and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts," said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

Kalantri underscored that talks between President Trump and Congress failed to secure short-term funding, raising the likelihood of a shutdown.

"Additional US tariffs on trucks, patented drugs, and other items set to take effect added to market jitters. The dollar index is trading below 98 marks and also supporting gold and silver prices,” said Kalantri.

The rupee's weakness is also influencing gold prices. A weak rupee makes gold more expensive in India, benefiting investors who already hold the yellow metal.

Eyes on RBI MPC outcome

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) commenced its three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on September 29, which is scheduled to conclude on Wednesday, October 1, 2025.

The central bank is expected to keep rates steady, which can help the rupee hold some ground against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the US Fed has signalled additional rate cuts this year, which should slightly weaken the dollar.

“More rate cuts could weigh further on narrowing interest-rate differentials with the US and reduced risk premia, and pressure the already-weak rupee. However, India’s relative loss of export competitiveness compared to EM Asia, amid higher tariffs and especially now with services entering the trade war's ambit, would, in principle, warrant some adjustment via a weaker currency against its peers. Such depreciation would act as a natural stabiliser for a weaker CAD, rather than being misread as a rate-easing deterrent,” said Emkay Global Financial Services in a note.

What should be your gold trading strategy?

According to Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures, the investment mood in India has shifted decisively towards bullion. Gold prices are currently benefiting from the pressures of global safe-haven demand and a weakening rupee.

“The upward trend is consistent with gold futures pushing to new highs and receiving inflows into gold ETFs, as the recent market watch explained. The price has moved up from more recent levels, indicating clear appreciation. Analysts recommend that, unless global monetary policy surprises or dollar strength returns, the price of gold should remain in its recent elevated range,” Kamboj said.

Rahul Kalantri of Mehta Equities further said, “Gold has support at $3830-3810 while resistance at $3872-3895. Silver has support at $46.60-46.30 while resistance is at $47.35-47.70. In INR gold has support at Rs1,15,000-1,14,680 while resistance at Rs1,15,550-1,15,700. Silver has support at Rs1,42,450-1,41,850 while resistance at Rs1,43,950, 1,44,800.”

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.