Gold prices in India remained steady on Tuesday, December 09, as traders held off on making big bets ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025.
The February futures contract on MCX opened the day higher at ₹1,30,045 per 10 grams, compared to the previous close of ₹1,29,101, but it touched an intraday low of ₹1,29,101.
By 8:00 PM IST, MCX gold was trading at ₹62, or 0.05% lower, at ₹1,29,900 per 10 grams. In the international market, spot gold traded flat at $4,193 per ounce.
“Markets remain focused on this week’s Federal Reserve policy, where a 0.25% rate cut is already priced in, but the statement, forward guidance, and economic outlook will drive fresh momentum. With Powell nearing the end of his term, expectations around the longer-term easing cycle continue to keep the broader outlook constructive for gold and silver," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.
He expects gold to trade in a range of 1,28,000– ₹1,31,500 range ahead of the policy event.
Fed likely to cut rates by 25 basis points
The US central bank is widely expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points at its final meeting of the year, bringing the Federal Funds rate to 3.5%–3.75%. However, experts said the Fed will then take a more data-dependent stance.
Markets now assign an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut when its policy meeting concludes on Wednesday, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, but the focus will be on any signals about the path ahead.
Money markets now barely see two cuts in 2026 after a likely 25-basis-point reduction tomorrow, a retreat from more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks.
Last week, data showed the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, landed in line with expectations, while consumer sentiment improved in December.
Private payrolls for November recorded their sharpest drop in more than two and a half years, but jobless claims fell to a three-year low for the week ended November 28.
While the Fed’s easing cycle remains intact, investors must still contend with a policy committee that has grown fractious, limited economic data after the government shutdown, and uncertainty over the stance of Chair Jerome Powell’s successor when his term ends in May.
Meanwhile, data due later Tuesday, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), will round out economic releases before the Fed announcement. The JOLTS report is expected to show that the labor market softened modestly in September and October, according to Bloomberg Economics.
(With inputs from Bloomberg)
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