Gold, Silver Rate Highlights: Gold, silver price crash as US takes guard against China — How to trade on Budget day?

MCX gold futures for April closed at ₹1,50,849 per 10 grams, recording an intraday decline of ₹1,496 or 0.98% compared to the previous day's close of ₹1,52,345 per 10 grams. The MCX gold rate today is ₹29,930 below its all-time high of ₹1,80,779 per 10 grams.

MCX silver price for March futures closed at ₹2,91,922 per kg, which is ₹1,28,126 or 30.50% below the record high of ₹4,20,048 per kg.

The market is expecting an announcement on a reduction in import duty to boost the gems and jewellery business, which is facing a dual hit from soaring gold and silver prices and lower demand. In that case, there can be a sharp decline taking place in gold and silver prices as the MCX will remain open on the Union Budget 2026 date, said Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert.

Geopolitical uncertainties, the dollar's weakness, US Fed rate cuts, aggressive central bank buying, and strong retail demand have driven the yellow metal rates to unprecedented levels.

Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, told PTI that gold has delivered exceptional gains this month, and such pullbacks are healthy consolidations rather than trend reversals.

"However, elevated prices have begun to weigh on physical demand, particularly in price-sensitive markets like India, suggesting near-term volatility may persist even as the broader bullish outlook for bullion stays intact," he told PTI.

Gold prices rose by ₹27,800, or 20.2 per cent, in January, from ₹1,37,700 per 10 grams recorded at the end of last year, PTI reported.

Silver prices ended January with significant gains, rising ₹73,000, or 30.5 per cent, to reach ₹2,39,000 per kilogram, despite experiencing a steep fall in two consecutive sessions up to Saturday, PTI reported.

Gold and silver prices traded lower on Thursday, pressured by a strong US dollar.

A hawkish Fed chair pick under President Trump sparked global fears of tighter policy, strengthening the USD and crushing overbought metals, said Nikunj Saraf, CEO at Choice Wealth

Gold has seen a sharp multi-session correction from recent peaks above $5,480–$5,626, falling nearly 16% to trade around $4,745–$4,887, after testing intraday lows near $4,700. The move featured exhaustion patterns such as spinning tops and reversal candles, triggering panic selling amid overbought conditions, according to Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

On Friday, MCX silver price for March futures closed at ₹2,91,922 per kg, ₹1,28,126 or 30.50% away from the record high of ₹4,20,048 per kg.

MCX gold futures for April closed at ₹1,50,849 per 10 gram, recording an intraday decline of ₹1,496 or 0.98% compared to the previous day's close of ₹1,52,345 per 10 gram. The MCX gold rate today is ₹29,930 below its lifetime high of ₹1,80,779 per 10 gram.

The market is expecting an announcement on a reduction in import duty to boost the gems and jewellery business, which is facing a dual hit from soaring gold and silver prices and lower demand. In that case, there can be a sharp decline taking place in gold and silver prices as the MCX will remain open on the Union Budget 2026 date.

— Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert

Overall, the sharp correction across gold and silver represents a leverage flush, sentiment reset, and tactical adjustment rather than a trend reversal. Near-term choppiness may linger amid dollar dynamics, but disciplined buying on dips guided by key supports and channel integrity should define the next leg higher in this secular bull market into 2026.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

Industrial demand convergence maintains relative strength potential; a decisive hold and move back above ₹3,00,000– ₹3,10,000 would signal renewed buying interest, potentially accelerating toward ₹3,40,000– ₹3,50,000+ on supply constraints.

Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

Domestic silver corrected aggressively from peaks near ₹420,048 per kg to around ₹2,91,925– ₹2,91,000. Elevated volatility persists, but structural supports are evident near ₹2,91,000, with stronger alignment around ₹2,51,000– ₹2,52,000 tied to the 50-day EMA.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

The $74–$70 zone, which aligns with the 50-day EMA, provides critical demand support. Stability above this base could facilitate a rebound toward $82–$92–$100+ as industrial tailwinds re-emerge and momentum rebuilds. The ascending channel remains supportive on shallow pullbacks.

Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

Silver endured even more extreme volatility, plunging nearly 40% from highs above $118–$121 to around $74–$85 (with lows near $74). This outsized correction aligns with historical late-stage bull phase shakeouts, but silver's hybrid monetary-industrial profile continues to underpin the outlook amid persistent supply tightness and demand growth.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

Prices now consolidate in the $4,740–$4,760 zone, where prior breakout levels, the 20-day EMA, and converging supports align, providing a robust technical floor. The 50-day EMA near $4,500–$4,533 offers deeper cushioning, while the multi-year ascending channel and slope support limit further downside. As long as prices hold above $4,700, the bullish structure remains valid, with recovery potential toward $4,800–$5,000+ on renewed safe-haven demand or momentum recovery. A decisive break below $4,500 would be needed to challenge the broader uptrend.

Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

It seems the US government is going to exercise its age-old tool of margin hikes to contain the skyrocketing gold and silver prices. The CME has raised the margin for gold from 6% to 8%. It has raised margins for silver and Platinum and palladium futures’ margin also. This means the US government has taken cognisance of the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver trading at a premium of over 5% before the Friday session.

— Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360

Gold has seen a sharp multi-session correction from recent peaks above $5,480–$5,626, falling nearly 16% to trade around $4,745–$4,887, after testing intraday lows near $4,700. The move featured exhaustion patterns like spinning tops and reversal candles, triggering panic selling amid overbought conditions.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

If gold prices fail to regain the $ 4,900-per-ounce level on Mo, we can assume the precious yellow metal has topped out. After topping out, gold prices are expected to touch $3,800 per ounce by the end of October 2026. This fall may not be one directional, and the precious yellow metal is expected to achieve this level, doing a dead-cat-bounce from every new low.

— Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360

As the gold price in the international market has closed below $4,900/oz. Much would depend upon the kind of opening it gets on Monday. If the yellow metal recovers to $4,900 per ounce, we can expect it to regain lost ground. However, if these levels are missed, panic selling may trigger, and gold prices may start losing more ground.

— Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360

Domestic gold mirrored the global selloff, retreating from highs near ₹1,80,000+ to stabilise around ₹1,49,500 to ₹1,49,653, reflecting a similar percentage decline. The contract trades near the 20-day EMA, with the long-term upward channel still respected. Key support lies at ₹1,40,000 to ₹1,45,000, bolstered by the firm USD/INR backdrop. Holding above ₹1,40,000 preserves the positive medium-term bias; a sustained rebound above ₹1,55,000 could reignite momentum toward ₹1,65,000 to ₹1,80,000+ in the coming months, supported by domestic tailwinds and structural demand.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

The correction serves as a healthy reset, purging excess leverage, speculative froth, and overbought conditions, positioning the market for more sustainable upside once sentiment stabilises and buy-on-dip interest returns. Near-term caution is warranted due to dollar strength and volatility, but medium- to long-term forecasts remain firmly bullish.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

The increase means those who want to trade futures of gold, silver, platinum and palladium will need to put up more collateral to ensure they can meet their obligations. While the exchange routinely raises margins when a contract is soaring, sliding or extremely volatile, Friday’s move could further edge out smaller players who don’t have enough cash to make the necessary deposits.

— Bloomberg

The change takes effect from Monday’s close and follows a “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage,” it said.

— Bloomberg

CME Group is raising margins on Comex gold and silver futures after prices suffered their biggest slides in decades.

Gold margins will rise to 8% of the value of the underlying contract from the current 6% for a non-heightened risk profile, the exchange said in a statement on Friday. The heightened risk profile margins will be increased to 8.8% from the current 6.6%, it said.

Silver margins will climb to 15% from the current 11% for a non-heightened risk profile, while the heightened risk profile margins will be hiked to 16.5% from the current 12.1%, according to the statement. Platinum and palladium futures’ margins will also be boosted.

— Bloomberg

Despite the severity of the pullback, the secular bullish structure into 2026 remains firmly intact. Core drivers persist: relentless central bank gold accumulation, silver's structural supply deficits amid surging industrial demand from green energy, EVs, AI, electronics, and solar, alongside enduring geopolitical uncertainties and fiat diversification trends.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

Precious metals witnessed one of the sharpest corrections in decades on Friday, January 30, 2026, as aggressive profit-booking followed the explosive rally to record highs earlier this month. The primary trigger was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next US Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump. Mr Warsh, known for his hawkish stance on inflation control and emphasis on Fed independence, prompted a rapid macro re-pricing: the US dollar strengthened, real yields rose, and leveraged positions in gold and silver, viewed as overextended debasement hedges, unwound swiftly. This resulted in violent liquidation, erasing billions in market value and flushing out weak hands in a classic euphoria-to-exhaustion phase, rather than signalling a structural bear-market reversal.

— Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money

The COMEX silver rate today is in a broader range of $70 to $95 per ounce, while the MCX silver price today is in the ₹2,50,000 lakh to ₹3,50,000 lakh per kg range. High-risk investors can take a smaller MCX silver price range from ₹2,65,000 to ₹3,20,000 per kg.

— Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert

Gold rate today is in a broader $4,550 to $4,900 per ounce range at CME, whereas MCX gold rate today is in a short ₹1,35,000 per 10 gm to ₹1,80,000 per gm. However, the broader range of MCX gold rate today is ₹1,35,000 to ₹1,80,000 per 10 gm.

— Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert

The US Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged strengthened the US Dollar, which also hurt the rally in gold and silver prices.

— Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360

A hawkish Fed chair pick under President Trump sparked global fears of tighter policy, strengthening the USD and crushing overbought metals.

— Nikunj Saraf, CEO at Choice Wealth

The CME has increased margin requirements on copper to 20%, triggering margin-hike buzz for gold and silver as well. As gold and silver prices were already in overbought territory, and the US Dollar (USD) was under pressure after the announcement of Trump's nominee for the US Fed Chairman's post to replace the incumbent Jerome Powell, the CME margin hike buzz triggered panic selling in the yellow and white metals.

— Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert

We may see further downside in gold and silver prices in the domestic market, as speculation suggests the central government may announce an import duty cut to boost demand in the jewellery market, which has been hit hard by soaring gold and silver prices. Some delegations of the gems and jewellery industry have also demanded a reduction in import duties on gold and silver. So, any such announcement in the Union Budget 2026 may lead to more downside movement in the precious metals.

— Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert

Such elevated volatility is expected to persist for a few more sessions until positions normalise and the buyer–seller equilibrium returns.

— Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities

Gold witnessed sharp selling pressure after margin hikes triggered aggressive profit booking in CME, where prices corrected from the recent peak.

— Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities

Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) data shows that the gold prices crashed 12% or ₹20,323 per 10 grams to ₹149,080 per 10 grams as of 11:12 pm (IST), compared to ₹169,403 per 10 grams at the previous market close.

While the silver prices plummeted 26.53% or ₹106,092/kg in a day to ₹293,801/kg as of 11:12 pm (IST), compared to ₹399,893/kg at the previous commodity market session, according to MCX data.

Sachin Sawrikar, Founder and Managing Partner, Artha Bharat Investment Managers, said that the commodity market investors systematically invest in gold funds are likely to smooth out through the market volatility in an effort to create long-term wealth.

“Indians have traditionally saved in gold, whether as jewellery or bullion, as a store of wealth and a safeguard against volatility. Today, this tradition can be adapted to modern standards through physical gold funds in India, including USD-denominated options in GIFT City,” said Sawrikar.

“Systematic investments in these funds smooth out market volatility, provide currency diversification, and preserve long-term wealth, transforming a time-honored practice into a disciplined, strategic allocation for contemporary portfolios,” said the expert.

Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) data shows that the gold prices were trading 4.75% or ₹8,053 per 10 grams lower at ₹161,350 per 10 grams as of 8:01 pm (IST), compared to ₹169,403 per 10 grams at the previous market close.

The silver prices crashed 15.38% or ₹61,523/kg to ₹338,370/kg as of 8:01 pm (IST), compared to ₹399,893/kg at the previous commodity market session, according to MCX data.

The precious metal prices crashed on Friday amid profit booking of investors and pressure from a stronger US dollar.

Gold and silver witnessed a sharp drop on Friday as investors booked profits and reassessed global risk following changing macroeconomic signals and market sentiment.

Despite the fall, silver remains one of the best-performing assets in 2026 so far, delivering gains of over 50% on a year-to-date basis.

“The sharp correction in MCX silver prices, nearly ₹80,000 off the record highs, along with gold’s decline of around ₹25,000, reflects a classic phase of profit-booking and global risk recalibration rather than a structural reversal in the precious metals story," said Senthil R. Kumar, the Managing Director and CEO of Nitstone Finserv.

He further noted that international cues such as a strengthening dollar, shifting interest-rate expectations, and easing geopolitical premiums have temporarily softened investor sentiment.

“However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, both gold and silver continue to hold their relevance as strategic hedge assets against inflation, currency volatility, and macroeconomic uncertainty,” he said.

Kumar advised investors to view this phase less as a panic and more as an opportunity to reassess allocation strategies, focusing on staggered investments and portfolio diversification rather than short-term speculation.

Both gold and silver are still set for hefty monthly gains, but Friday’s sell-off is the biggest shock to the rally since a similar slump in October, Bloomberg reported.

This sell-off was triggered by the dollar rebounding after reports emerged that President Donald Trump was preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, a development which is now confirmed.

The greenback’s rally undercut sentiment among investors who had been piling into metals after the president signaled a willingness to let the currency weaken.

Source: WhiteOak MF

Kazakh gold miner Solidcore Resources said on Friday it expects its gold output to rise 37% to 540 thousand ounces (KOZ) of gold equivalent in 2026, after a fall last year, according to Reuters report.

The company's 2025 gold equivalent production was down by 19% year-on-year to 395 KOZ, below its guidance of 420 KOZ.

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) measures the relative value between the two metals.

• The Compression: Based on current prices, the ratio has collapsed to approximately 46:1.

• The Warning: Historically, the 10-year ratio averages close to 80:1. When it drops below 50:1, silver is no longer cheap. In previous cycles, a ratio this low has preceded a mean reversion where silver prices corrected significantly faster relative to gold.

MCX gold and silver futures witnessed another bout of selling, erasing the mild reversal seen in the session after President Donald Trump said Friday that he will nominate former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Fed.

Warsh, known as a Fed hawk, has pushed for a smaller Fed balance sheet, contrasting with Trump's inclination towards looser monetary policy.

MCX gold futures were down 6% and silver futures 11%. They had plunged 9% and 15% earlier in the session.

A hawkish Fed chair pick under President Trump sparked global fears of tighter policy, strengthening the USD and crushing overbought metals. Spot Gold fell 3.9-5% to $5,183/oz, Silver 5.7% to $109.55/oz. Indian ETFs like Nippon India Silver (down 14%) mirrored this. For investors: This dip tests conviction—diversify, avoid panic selling, and eye rebounds from central bank demand. Long-term bulls hold firm.

— Views by Nikunj Saraf, CEO, Choice Wealth