How will GST cuts impact the middle class

The Government of India has announced sweeping changes to the Goods and Services Tax (GST), effective September 22, 2025. More than a rate cut, this is a structural reset with implications for household budgets, corporate margins, and the stock market.

Why GST Cuts Instead of Corporate Tax Cuts?

The fiscal multiplier effect illustrates this clearly:

• GST: 1.08x
• Income tax: 1.01x
• Corporate tax: 1.02x

For every ₹1 of GST revenue forgone, the economy expands by ₹1.08. Simply put, GST cuts generate the strongest growth impact among all tax measures.

GST 2.0’s aim is to lift retail consumption. Corporate tax cuts support company profits, but GST reductions directly lower household costs, sparking demand at the ground level.

A Simplified Structure

India has moved from a four-slab system (5%, 12%, 18%, 28%) to:

• 5% for essential, merit-based items
• 18% is the standard rate for most goods and services
• DEMERIT SLAB: 40% for sin and luxury products

Why only 5% and 18% have been chosen as the main slabs?

The 18% slab contributed nearly 65% of GST revenue, while 5% contributed 7%. Together, they made up ~72%. The 12% category was small at 5%, and the 28% slab contributed 11%. Consolidating into two slabs, therefore, simplifies compliance while preserving revenue efficiency.

Globally, too, most developed economies operate with one standard rate plus a reduced rate. India is moving closer to that model.

Health & Life Insurance Premiums Become GST-Free

One of the most consumer-friendly steps is the GST exemption on individual life and health insurance. Starting 22nd Sept, 2025, consumers are likely to see a drop in their life and health insurance policies. However, this doesn’t mean a flat 18% discount.

For instance: Take a ₹100 life insurance premium. With GST, the cost is ₹118. Removing GST lowers it back to ₹100. Compared to the earlier ₹118 bill, that’s an effective discount of 15.25%, not the full 18%. This difference is simply a matter of calculation.

Now let’s come to the insurers. Earlier, insurance companies paid GST on their operating expenses (like rent, IT, and advertising) but could set this off against GST collected from policyholders. With the exemption, they lose this input tax credit (ITC). To make up for this, some insurers may raise the base premium slightly. For example, what used to be ₹100 could now become ₹103 or ₹105.

In a Kotak Institutional Equities Research report, it has been stated, “A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that health insurance companies may need to raise tariffs by 3-5%”. This will help the companies compensate for the loss of input tax credit that is currently availed of, it added.

Impact on Policyholders

• Renewals before 22nd September will still be at the old GST-inclusive rates.
• Monthly premium payers see GST waived automatically from the next cycle.
• Existing policyholders benefit from next year. Their premiums remain free of GST, even if insurers later raise base rates.

Will Companies Pass on the Cuts to the consumers?

Not always. Some firms may absorb the benefit to offset rising input costs. But in competitive sectors such as FMCG, cement, and steel, companies will likely pass on lower taxes to protect affordability and market share. Global brands with strong demand and pricing power, like Apple, may not reduce prices.

Stock Market Impact

GST cuts lower monthly expenses for millions of households and leaves more disposable income. This higher consumption ultimately boosts the revenues of listed companies, leading to stronger earnings that eventually reflect in positive sentiments in the stock prices.

Conclusion

GST reform 2025 is not just about tax rationalisation but putting more money back into people’s pockets, igniting demand, and nudging India closer to global best practices in indirect taxation.

While the full benefits may take time to show, given inventory lags and insurers adjusting base rates, the direction is clear. For consumers, it means immediate relief on essentials and insurance. For companies, it means higher sales. And for investors, it signals a broader push that could lift earnings and valuations over the long run.

Finology is a SEBI-registered investment advisor firm with registration number: INA000012218.

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