Indian stock market: 10 key things that changed for market over weekend - Gift Nifty, Iran-Israel tensions to inflation

Indian stock market: The domestic equity market is expected to open lower on Monday tracking weakness in global peers amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel during the weekend.

Asian markets traded sharply lower while the US stock market closed lower last week amid concerns over high interest rates.

While markets are rattled by sticky inflation and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, the escalation of the Middle East crisis risks could further weigh on investors’ risk appetite and inject fresh volatility into markets.

Investors will watch out for several stock market triggers including Q4 results, general elections 2024, the Israel-Iran conflict, domestic and global economic macroeconomic data, crude oil prices, and global market cues will guide the stock market direction this week.

Read here: Week Ahead: Q4 Results, macro data, Israel-Iran conflict, global cues among key market triggers this week

On Friday, the Indian stock market indices ended a percent lower each dragged by selling across the board amid weak global cues.

The Sensex plunged 793.25 points, or 1.06%, to close at 74,244.90, while the Nifty 50 settled 234.40 points, or 1.03%, lower at 22,519.40.

“Indian equities could see temporary short-term headwinds from the US Fed easing being pushed into CY25 and hardening commodity prices due to adverse geopolitics. Fed rates have minimal impact as the India story is largely internally driven with a capex turnaround and a recovery in domestic manufacturing. A large and sustained commodity price rally is a more material risk, but that looks unlikely for now,” said Seshadri Sen, Head Of Research And Strategist, Emkay Global Financial Services.

He believes the upcoming Q4FY24 results season is seen to be on track, especially in sectors like consumer discretionary, and this is reflected in resilient FY25 EPS forecasts.

“We maintain our positive view on markets with a year-end Nifty target of 24,000 and expect SMIDs to continue their outperformance,” Sen added.

Also Read: Buy or sell: Vaishali Parekh recommends three stocks to buy today — April 15

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets slipped on Monday tracking losses in US equities amid ratcheting tensions in the Middle East.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.28%, while the Topix dropped 0.97%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.92% and the Kosdaq plunged 1.58%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a weak opening.

Read here: Asian Stocks Fall in Wake of Iran Attack on Israel: Markets Wrap

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around the 22,465 level, a discount of nearly 140 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market indices ended sharply lower on Friday after earnings of major US banks failed to impress and looming geopolitical tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 475.84 points, or 1.24%, to 37,983.24, while the S&P 500 fell 75.65 points, or 1.46%, to 5,123.41. The Nasdaq Composite closed 267.10 points, or 1.62%, lower at 16,175.09.

Among stocks, Advanced Micro Devices shares fell 4.2% and Intel share price plunged 5.2%. US Steel shares dropped 2.1%.

Also Read: Wall Street week ahead: Investors to focus on US economic data, key earnings, Middle East tensions

Iran-Israel Conflict

Geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East after Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets in Israel on Saturday night in response to a suspected Israel attack on Iran’s Syria consulate on April 1. Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) has confirmed the attack saying it was ‘aimed at specific targets’. Meanwhile, Israel is likely to strike back at Iran in retaliation.

Read here: Israel-Iran Tensions LIVE Updates: Hamas proposes new ceasefire deal, demands six-week break from hostilities

US Dollar, Treasury Yields

The US dollar steadied on Monday, holding its biggest weekly gain since 2022, amid prospects of high interest rates and escalating conflict in the Middle East. The dollar spiked 1.6% against a basket of six major currencies last week.

US two-year yields rose 15 basis points last week amid fading hopes of early interest rate cuts, to price in just a 50 basis-point reduction this year, with the first cut not fully priced until September.

India CPI, IIP Data

India’s retail inflation eased to a 10-month low of 4.85% on an annual basis in March from 5.09% in the previous month.

India’s industrial output growth as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) accelerated to 5.7% in February from 3.8% in January 2024, indicating a growth in the manufacturing sector of the Indian economy.

Read here: Retail inflation and factory output deliver twin thrust to Indian economy

Oil Prices

Crude oil prices were muted after Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Israel.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 0.07% to $90.51 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts eased 0.07% to $85.60 per barrel.

Gold Price Today

Gold prices rose on Monday amid safe-haven demand. Gold rate increased 0.7% to $2,359.92 an ounce, after having scaled a record of $2,431.29 on Friday. The yellow metal has gained around 14% for the year thus far.

TCS Q4 Results

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported a consolidated net profit of ₹12,434 crore for the fourth quarter of FY24, registering a growth of 9% from ₹11,392 crore in the year-ago period. The IT major’s Q4FY24 revenue rose 3.5% YoY to ₹61,237 crore.

Read here: TCS Q4 result: Revenue up 4%, profit rises 9% YoY; top 5 highlights from March quarter scorecard

Japan’s Machinery Orders

Japan's key gauge of capital spending, core machinery orders rose 7.7% in February from the previous month, blowing past a 0.8% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll and more than recouping a 1.7% fall in January.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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