Indian stock market: 10 key things that changed for market over weekend - Gift Nifty, US factory output to oil prices

Indian stock market: The domestic equity indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Monday tracking mixed global market cues. 

Asian markets traded higher ahead of key economic data releases in the region, while the US stock indices ended lower last week.

Market participants will watch out for several stock market triggers such as US Federal Reserve policy meeting outcome, foreign capital inflow, trends in crude oil prices and global cues. China will release data on retail sales, industrial output and urban unemployment numbers later today.

This week will be important from an economic perspective as major central banks globally including the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England will announce interest rate decisions.

Read here: Week Ahead: US Fed Policy, FPI inflows, crude oil prices, global cues among key market triggers this week

Meanwhile, escalating global geopolitical risks can weigh on market sentiment after Ukraine attacked Russian oil refineries over the weekend, with drone strikes hitting multiple plants, some of them deep within the country’s territory.

On Friday, the Indian stock market indices closed with significant losses as investors resorted to profit-taking as sentiment remained cautious amid persistent concerns over stretched valuations and froth in certain segments of the market.

The Sensex slipped 453.85 points, or 0.62%, to close at 72,643.43, while the Nifty 50 ended 123.30 points, or 0.56%, lower at 22,023.35.

“US Fed policy outcome and commentary will be important as mixed set macro data has kept investors anxious over the rate cut timeline. Thus, we expect the market to remain volatile in the near term with a focus on large caps and defensive names,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Here are key domestic and global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded higher on Monday ahead of the release of key economic data from China, a slew of central bank meetings this week. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1%, after dipping 0.7% last week. 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied 1.34% and the Topix jumped 1.21%. South Korea’s Kospi traded flat, while Kosdaq rose 0.9%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a strong opening.

Also Read: Buy or sell: Vaishali Parekh recommends three stocks to buy today — March 18

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around the 22,050 level, a discount of nearly 80 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a negative start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market indices ended lower on Friday dragged by technology stocks while investors weighed the interest rate outlook ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 190.89 points, or 0.49%, to 38,714.77, while the S&P 500 fell 33.39 points, or 0.65%, to 5,117.09. The Nasdaq Composite settled 155.36 points, or 0.96%, lower at 15,973.17.

Among stocks, Adobe shares plunged 13.7%, while Microsoft share price declined 2.1%.

Also Read: Wall Street week ahead: All eyes on Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision

US Factory Production

US factory production increased more than expected in February as manufacturing output rebounded 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 1.1% drop in the prior month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory output would rise 0.3%. Production at factories fell 0.7% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in February. 

US Consumer Sentiment

US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations were little changed in March, a survey showed. The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 76.5 this month, compared to a final reading of 76.9 in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 76.9.

One-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in March, while the five-year inflation outlook held steady at 2.9% for the fourth straight month, as per the survey, Reuters reported.

US Treasury Yields

The US Treasury yield rose to its highest level in three weeks. The benchmark 10-year notes’ yields were up 1.4 basis points (bps) at 4.315%, their highest since February 22. The two-year yields are up at 4.723%, having climbed 24 basis points last week.

Oil Prices

Crude oil prices steadied after its biggest weekly advance in a month as geopolitical tensions escalated after Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries. Brent oil, the global benchmark, traded 0.04% higher at $85.37 a barrel after gaining 4% last week, while West Texas Intermediate rose 0.07% to $81.10 a barrel.

Japan Core Machinery Orders

Japan’s core machinery orders fell more than expected by 1.7% in January from the previous month. That compared with a 1.0% drop expected by economists in a Reuters poll. On a YoY basis, core orders decreased 10.9%, smaller than the forecast 11.2% slump.

SEBI Board Meet Outcome

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approved several proposals, including exempting certain FPIs from additional disclosure requirements, the launch of a beta version of the T+0 settlement, and facilitating the ease of doing business for companies going public.

Read here: Sebi eases disclosure norms for certain FPIs, approves T+0 settlement

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Dates Announced

The Elections Commission of India announced the schedule of voting and results for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 on Saturday. The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections will happen in seven phases, beginning on April 19 to June 1. The results of Lok Sabha Polls 2024 will be declared on June 4.

Read here: Lok Sabha Election 2024 dates out: 10 key highlights of seven-phase voting

(With inputs from Reuters)

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