Indian stock market: 10 things that changed for market over weekend - Gift Nifty, Exit Polls 2024, GDP to US inflation

Indian stock market: The Indian equity benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open sharply higher on Monday as the exit polls suggested the Prime Minister Narendra Modi coming back to power for the third term as the BJP-led alliance is likely to win the Lok Sabha elections with a thumping majority. Positive global cues also supported the investor sentiment.

Asian markets traded higher while the US stocks ended higher last week after a softer reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for inflation bolstered interest rate-cut hopes.

Investors will now keep a watch on the Lok Sabha election results tomorrow, the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), auto sales data, flow of foreign funds, domestic and global macroeconomic data, crude oil prices, and other key global cues.

Read here: Week Ahead: Exit polls, Lok Sabha election results, RBI Policy, auto sales, among key market triggers this week

On Friday, the Indian stock market ended with minor gains, snapping the five-day losing streak, led by gains in key heavyweights.

The Sensex gained 75.71 points, or 0.10%, to close at 73,961.31, while the Nifty 50 ended 42.05 points, or 0.19%, higher at 22,530.70.

“Exit polls results which indicate a clear victory for the NDA with around 360 seats completely removes the so-called election jitters which have been weighing on markets in May. This comes as a shot in the arm for the bulls who will trigger a big rally in the market on Monday. Largecaps in financials, capital goods, automobiles and telecom are likely to lead the rally,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

The bulls will be further emboldened by the better-than-expected 8.2% growth in GDP numbers. 

Vijayakumar believes technically and fundamentally the market is poised for a rally.

Also Read: Indian stock market: How is market expected to open on Monday post exit polls, GDP data?

Here are key domestic and global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded higher on Monday following a rally on Wall Street and ahead of key economic data in the region.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.3%, having slid 2.5% last week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 1.01%, while the Topix index rallied 1.02%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.26%, and the Kosdaq rose 0.42%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a marginally higher opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 23,330 level, a premium of nearly 630 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-up start for the Indian stock market indices.

Also Read: Buy or sell after exit poll: Vaishali Parekh recommends three stocks to buy today — June 3

Wall Street

The US stock market ended higher on Friday with the Dow registering its biggest daily percentage gain since November 2023.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 574.84 points, or 1.51%, to 38,686.32, while the S&P 500 gained 42.03 points, or 0.80%, at 5,277.51. The Nasdaq Composite closed 2.06 points, or 0.01%, lower at 16,735.02.

For the month, the S&P 500 rallied about 4.8%, the Nasdaq surged 6.9% and the Dow jumped 2.4%.

Among stocks Dell shares plunged 17.9%, Zscaler shares jumped 8.5% and Gap share price surged 28.6%. Trump Media & Technology Group stock fell 5.3%.

Also Read: Wall Street week ahead: Spotlight on May jobs data, manufacturing reports

US Inflation

US inflation tracked sideways in April, as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3% last month, matching the unrevised gain in March. The PCE price index rose 2.7% year-on-year (YoY), after advancing 2.7% in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise of 0.3% on the month and 2.7% on a YoY basis.

Exit Polls

A majority of the exit poll results declared on Saturday predicted a historic third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is projected to secure more than 350 seats in the Lok Sabha.

The counting of votes will commence on June 4, and the results could be announced later that day. 

Read here: Poll of Polls: 10 exit polls predict 350+ seats for BJP-led NDA, three 400+; INDIA bloc to get less than 200 seats

India GDP

India’s economic growth surprised on the upside as the gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 7.8% annually in the fourth quarter of FY24, beating all expectations. The government now estimates the overall growth rate for FY24 to be 8.2%, official data showed.

Read here: India Q4 GDP Data Highlights: FY24 growth hits 8.2%

GST Collection

India’s gross goods and services tax (GST) collections rose to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May, growing 10% year-on-year (YoY) driven by increased revenues from domestic transactions.

Read here: GST collection rises 10% to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May 2024, gross GST revenue up 15.3% YoY

Fiscal Deficit

The government's fiscal deficit for FY24 stood at 5.63% of the GDP, marginally better than the 5.8% estimated in the Union Budget, according to official data. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit was at ₹16.53 lakh crore.

Read here: India’s FY24 fiscal deficit improves to 5.63% of GDP, narrower than government’s target of 5.8%

OPEC Supply Cut

The OPEC group of oil-producing nations and its 10 allies agreed to extend their production cuts until the end of 2025. The group-wide supply cuts amount to about two million barrels per day (bpd).

Crude oil prices fell, with Brent crude oil down 0.30% to $80.87 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 0.25% to $76.80.

Japan PMI

Japan’s factory activity expanded for the first time in a year in May, a private-sector survey showed, Reuters reported. The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.4 last month from 49.6 in April.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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