Indian stock market: 8 key things that changed for market over weekend - Gift Nifty, Japan’s GDP to China inflation

Indian stock market: The domestic equity indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Monday as indicated by the trends on Gift Nifty amid mixed global market cues.

Asian shares traded mixed, while the US stock market indices ended in the red last week with the treasury yields and the dollar also slipping.

The Indian stock market indices ended flat with a positive bias on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 making a new high above the 22,500 zone during the day. The domestic equity market was shut on Friday on account of a public holiday.

The Sensex gained 33.40 points, or 0.05%, to close at 74,119.39, while the Nifty 50 settled 19.50 points, or 0.09%, higher at 22,493.55.

Market participants will now look out for several stock market triggers as the focus will shift to crucial economic data, such as inflation data releases from both India and the US, electoral announcements ahead of General Elections 2024, foreign capital inflow and other global cues.

Read here: Week Ahead: Inflation data, FII activity, global cues among key market triggers as Nifty 50 eyes 22,800 this week

“Investors will take cues from the outcome of the ECB interest rate meeting and US Non-Farm Payroll data. Also, the second set of economic data would continue to drive the market sentiments. We expect Nifty 50 to move towards 22,700 - 22,750 in the next few days with the ongoing rally focused towards large caps,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian share markets traded lower on Monday following losses on Wall Street. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.3%, after hitting an eight-month peak on Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 2.07%, while the Topix fell 1.33%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.39%, and the Kosdaq traded marginally lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a slightly stronger opening.

Also Read: Buy or sell: Vaishali Parekh recommends three stocks to buy today — March 11

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around the 22,652 level, a premium of nearly 100 points from the Nifty futures’ Thursday close, indicating a gap-up start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

The US stock market indices ended lower on Friday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched record highs during the session, as chip stocks retraced and the release of mixed labor market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 68.66 points, or 0.18%, to 38,722.69, while the S&P 500 declined 33.67 points, or 0.65%, to 5,123.69. The Nasdaq Composite ended 188.26 points, or 1.16%, lower at 16,085.11.

For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.26%, Nasdaq slipped 1.17% and the Dow dropped 0.93%.

Among stocks, Nvidia shares ended 5.6% lower, while Broadcom stock price plunged 7% and Marvell Technology shares tumbled 11.4%.

Also Read: Wall Street week ahead: Stock market investors to keenly watch for Feb inflation data

Japan avoids technical recession

Japan narrowly avoided entering a technical recession in the second half of 2023, with revised data showing gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the October-December quarter, better than the initial estimate for a 0.4% contraction. 

This reversed an earlier preliminary estimate for a 0.1% contraction following negative growth of 0.8% in the third quarter. Economists had forecast for a 1.1% uptick in a Reuters poll.

Read here: Japan avoids technical recession as Q4 GDP revised up to slight expansion

US Jobs Data

US job growth accelerated in February, but the unemployment rate increased to a two-year high. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 jobs last month, while the economy created 167,000 fewer jobs in December and January than previously estimated. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 jobs added in February.

The US unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, while wage growth slowed to 0.1% on a monthly basis.

China Inflation

Chinese consumer prices rose in February for the first time since August, data showed. China’s consumer price index rose 0.7% last month, higher than a 0.3% rise analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected and a sharp increase on the 0.8% fall seen in January.

Fed Chair Powell

The US Federal Reserve was “not far” from gaining the confidence it needs in falling inflation to begin cutting interest rates, said its Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Speaking on the current stance of monetary policy in a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell said, “I think we are in the right place.”

“We are waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction so that we don’t drive the economy into recession,” he said.

Read here: US Fed is ‘not far’ from gaining confidence needed to cut interest rates, says Powell

Oil prices

Crude oil prices extended losses ahead of US inflation data and reports from OPEC and the IEA this week that may provide clues on the demand outlook. Brent futures declined 0.67% to $81.53 a barrel after closing 1.1% lower on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.74% to $77.43 a barrel.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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