Indian stock market: How are Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to perform this week amid US-Iran ceasefire talks?

The Indian stock market remained volatile and under pressure during the week, with investor sentiment staying fragile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices, and continued foreign fund outflows. Despite occasional recovery attempts, the overall trend remained weak, as indices struggled to hold gains at higher levels.

The Nifty 50 ended near 22,819.60, dropping 486.85 points or 2.09% on Friday and closing the week down by about 1.28%. Meanwhile, Sensex settled around 73,583.22, declining 1,690 points or 2.25% on Friday and recording a weekly loss of 1.27%.

Bank Nifty underperformed the broader market, finishing near 52,274.60, down 1,433.50 points or 2.67% on Friday and posting a sharper weekly fall of around 2.16%, indicating continued weakness in the banking sector.

Stock market outlook for next week

According to Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, the week ahead is expected to be largely dictated by global drivers, with crude oil, currency movements, and geopolitical developments remaining key variables.

“Market structure continues to appear fragile, with overhead resistance capping rallies and institutional positioning reflecting a cautious bias. In the absence of a decisive breakout above key resistance levels, supported by broad participation, the near-term outlook remains skewed towards a sell-on-strength strategy, with volatility likely to stay elevated,” Hariprasad said.

Market trading strategy for next week

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking believes that portfolio positioning should focus on quality large-cap stocks with strong balance sheets and earnings visibility.

Mishra further said that defensive sectors and domestic-oriented themes may offer relative stability in the current environment.

“Traders should remain agile, avoid aggressive leverage, and prioritise capital preservation. With volatility expected to remain elevated in the holiday-shortened week, a hedged and selective approach, supported by strict risk management, will be essential until clearer directional cues emerge,” he added.

Key technical levels to watch for in the coming week -

Sensex

On the Sensex outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, said that the index witnessed a brief phase of stabilization but eventually closed sharply lower near the 73,500–73,600 zone, reflecting continued weakness in the broader structure.

“Immediate resistance is placed in the 74,400–74,900 range, while a sustained move above 75,000 will be required to improve overall market sentiment meaningfully. On the downside, a decisive break below 73,000 could extend the decline towards 72,500–72,000 levels. Overall, the outlook remains cautious to weak, with selective buying expected at lower levels, but broader sentiment continues to remain fragile amid persistent global uncertainties,” he said.

Nifty 50

Mishra of Religare Broking said that the index witnessed significant volatility during the week and closed below the 22,850 mark, indicating continued weakness.

He noted that immediate support is placed around 22,500, and a sustained break below this level could extend the decline toward 22,000.

“On the upside, the 23,500 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance, and only a sustained move above this level would signal a potential recovery toward 24,000,” he added.

Bank Nifty

On the Bank Nifty outlook, Mishra further opined that the banking index remained under pressure in line with the broader market trend.

“Key support is seen near 50,500, and a break below this level could push the index further toward the major support at the 200 WEMA, currently placed around 48,800. On the upside, resistance is seen in the 53,800–55,300 zone,” he said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.