Nifty can hit 29,000 level in 12 months, says PL Capital; adds these 3 stocks to model portfolio

Nifty 50 Outlook: Brokerage house PL Capital has turned bullish on Indian equities and now expects the Nifty 50 to hit 29,000 over the next 12 months (from (28,781 earlier), supported by improving corporate earnings, resilient domestic demand and stronger macro stability.

In its latest India Strategy report, the brokerage said the market may be entering a long-awaited upgrade cycle after several quarters of earnings downgrades. It highlighted that Nifty earnings revisions for FY26, FY27 and FY28 have all turned positive for the first time in five quarters.

The upbeat outlook came on a day when Indian markets saw firm gains. On Wednesday, November 26, benchmark indices surged sharply, supported by strong global cues. The Sensex jumped more than 900 points (nearly 1%) to hit an intraday high of 85,512.50, while the Nifty 50 rallied over 1% to touch 26,173.60. The brokerage's new target is almost 11% upside from today's intra-day high.

The broad-market rally added nearly ₹5 lakh crore to investors’ wealth as the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies climbed from ₹469 lakh crore to around ₹474 lakh crore.

The positive sentiment followed expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December, a softer tariff stance by US President Donald Trump, and rising hopes of an end to the Russia–Ukraine war—a development global markets have been cheering.

PL Capital Raises Nifty Target to 29,094

In its outlook, PL Capital noted that Nifty has risen 4% in the past three months after a prolonged consolidation, with the recovery supported by resilient Q2 FY26 performance, expectations of a resolution to the US tariff dispute and domestic demand revival during the festive and wedding season boosted by GST rationalisation.

PL Capital said, “We value Nifty at a 15-year average PE of 19.2x using September 2027 EPS of 1,515 to arrive at a 12-month target of 29,094.” The brokerage reiterated that Banks, NBFCs, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Defence and Ports remain its preferred themes for 2026. The brokerage, however, is underweight on IT services and commodities, citing slower global tech spending and volatility in global commodity prices.

For the bull case, it valued the index at 20.2x, assigning a target of 30,548 (16.5% upside from today's high). In a bear scenario, it noted that the Nifty could trade at a 10% discount to long-period average, implying a target of 26,184.

High-Conviction Picks: Portfolio Reshuffle and New Additions

The brokerage said, “We expect domestic consumption to strengthen and have increased weights on Banks, NBFC/Insurance and Ports in our model allocation.”

PL Capital has refreshed its list of high-conviction ideas as part of its updated strategy outlook, making several noteworthy changes. The brokerage has removed Apollo Hospitals, Lupin, Amber Enterprises, and Eris Lifesciences from the list—not due to any negative view on these companies, but because it now sees stronger opportunities elsewhere in the market.

In their place, PL Capital has added Ajanta Pharma, Fine Organic Industries, and Max Healthcare Institute, reflecting its increased confidence in sectors that are showing stronger earnings visibility and structural growth potential.

Ajanta Pharma is expected to clock 13% revenue CAGR over FY25–28, with EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 17%/16%. PL Capital values it at 30x PE on Sept 2027 earnings and maintains a BUY with a target of ₹3,200.

Fine Organics is executing a ₹7.5 billion greenfield SEZ project at JNPA. The new facility could generate ₹26 billion peak revenue, potentially doubling total revenues by FY29/FY30.

Max Healthcare is projected to double its EBITDA/PAT over FY25–28, supported by 3,700 additional beds, better payor mix and recent acquisitions in Lucknow, Nagpur and Noida. The brokerage values it at 35x EV/EBITDA (Sept 2027) and recommends BUY.

Earnings Upgrade Cycle May Have Begun

According to PL Capital, India may finally be entering a long-awaited earnings upgrade cycle. After five straight quarters of downgrades, Nifty earnings have now seen upgrades of 0.7%, 0.9% and 1.3% for FY26, FY27 and FY28 respectively. Consensus earnings estimates have also inched higher.

While 48% of Nifty stocks still experienced downward revisions—compared to 54% in the previous review and 68% in February 2025—the trend shows clear improvement. The shift is even more striking for FY27. Downgrades have fallen sharply from 64% in July to just 26% now, a sign that analysts expect earnings recovery to broaden out and gain momentum over the coming quarters.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.