IndiGo share price crashes 4%; should investors buy, sell, or hold this aviation stock after Q3 results?

IndiGo share price crashed as much as 4% in early deals on the BSE on Friday, January 23, a day after the company announced its Q3 results. InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) shares opened at ₹4,840.10 against their previous close of ₹4,913.80 and crashed 3.9% to an intraday low of ₹4,723.60. The aviation stock, however, quickly pared losses and traded 1.75% lower at ₹4,827.85 around 9:20 am.

IndiGo Q3 results

InterGlobe Aviation, on Thursday, January 22, reported a steep 77.55% year-on-year (YoY) drop in its consolidated profit for Q3FY26 at ₹5,498 million, largely due to a one-time impact of ₹9,693 million due to the implementation of new labour laws, and an exceptional item related to operational disruptions aggregating to ₹5,772 million.

Consolidated revenue from operations rose 6.2% YoY to ₹2,34,719 million. The Q3 EBITDAR slipped 0.8% YoY to ₹60,084 million.

IndiGo's capacity increased by 11.2% to 45.4 billion in Q3FY26, while passengers increased by 2.8% to 31.9 million.

Should you buy IndiGo shares after Q3 results?

Most top brokerages appear positive about the stock for the long term.

Brokerage firm Emkay Global Financial Services maintained a buy call on the aviation stock with a target price of ₹6,300, anticipating a gradual improvement in IndiGo's operations and growth.

"We value Indigo at a P/E-based target price of ₹6,300 (nearly 22 times Dec-27E EPS). Although it would benefit from accumulated tax losses well up till FY28, we adjust PAT to reflect the normalised taxation. Adverse currency and fuel prices, economic slowdown, stake sale, and operational issues are the key risks," said Emkay.

Emkay cut its FY26E EBITDA by 5% but kept its FY27–28 estimates unchanged. However, its AEPS (excluding forex and exceptionals) is now 10%, 6%, and 7% lower for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, due to below-the-operating-line adjustments.

Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services has maintained a buy call on the stock with a target price of ₹6,100.

"Despite near-term challenges in the form of reduced capacity, capped prices, rupee depreciation, and rising damp leases, Indigo remains confident in its growth strategy as India’s domestic network remains the backbone, with expanding international connectivity," Motilal Oswal pointed out.

"Going forward over the longer term, the return of grounded aircraft to service, and improved demand are likely to drive performance in the coming quarters. We expect its revenue, EBITDAR, and adjusted PAT to clock a CAGR of 12%, 13%, and 10%, respectively, over FY25-28. We value the stock at 9 times FY28E EBITDAR to arrive at our target price of ₹6,100," said Motilal.

Brokerage firm JM Financial has upgraded the stock to an "add" from a "reduce" earlier, but trimmed the target price to ₹5,420 from ₹5,570 earlier.

JM Financial has revised its earnings downwards by 52%, 6%, and 3% for FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E, respectively, factoring in a weaker rupee.

"We continue to peg P/E multiple to long-term average of nearly 20 times, implying a target price of ₹5,420 and upgrade the stock from a 'reduce' to an 'add'," said JM Financial.

While the fundamentals appear positive, technical experts highlight some weaknesses in tech charts.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, highlighted that IndiGo continues to exhibit a weak technical structure as the stock is trading below its 20- and 50-day DEMA, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Momentum indicators also remain unfavourable, said Patel, with the DMI pointing towards a negative trend and Stochastics staying in a weak zone.

However, despite the broader weakness, the stock is currently placed near a crucial support level around ₹4,700, which could act as a demand zone in the near term.

Patel said from these levels, a short-term relief rally towards the ₹5,000 mark cannot be ruled out. However, any upside is likely to face selling pressure near higher levels unless the stock decisively moves above key moving averages.

"Traders are advised to maintain a wait-and-watch approach and look for clearer confirmation before taking fresh positions," said Patel.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.