Inflation data, India-US trade deal to Q3 results 2026: Top five triggers that may dictate Indian stock market this week

Indian stock market: Indian indices - Sensex and Nifty - closed higher on Friday, February 6, supported by buying interest in select heavyweight stocks such as ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and ICICI Bank.

The Sensex rose 266 points, or 0.32%, to settle at 83,580.40, while the Nifty 50 gained 51 points, or 0.20%, ending the session at 25,693.70.

“Markets remained volatile during the week but ended with healthy gains, as bullish momentum resurfaced with supportive global and domestic triggers outweighing initial Budget-related concerns. The announcement of the India–US trade deal sparked a strong recovery, helping markets absorb the early weakness following the increase in STT on derivatives in Budget 2026–27. Sentiment improved further after the RBI kept policy rates unchanged and revised its GDP growth estimates upward. As a result, the benchmark indices — Nifty and Sensex — closed at 25,693.70 and 83,580.40, respectively. Broader indices also advanced, reflecting improved risk appetite,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Stock Market Outlook next week

According to Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, the Indian equity markets have entered a consolidation phase, shifting investor focus toward implementation, capex execution and the pace of actual spending.

" Overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with markets expected to stay event-driven in the near term, tracking global cues, capital flows and geopolitical developments in the Middle-East.

In addition, investors will be watching the release of January consumer price inflation data, compiled using a revised base year of 2024. The updated base is expected to reflect better current consumption patterns across both rural and urban India, improving the accuracy, relevance and transparency of CPI estimates. Geopolitical developments will also remain in focus, particularly the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran. Any setback in the talks could heighten volatility across global financial and commodity markets, as it may increase the risk of a US military intervention and a broader regional conflict in the Middle East," Ponmudi added.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

1] India-US trade deal

Following the announcement of the India-US trade deal on Monday, an interim trade pact between the two countries was announced on Friday evening.

India and the US have agreed on a framework for an interim trade pact aimed at reciprocal and mutually beneficial commerce, the White House said late on Saturday, February 6. The framework represents a formal breakthrough after nearly a year of talks and reduces US-imposed tariffs to 18%.

Stock market experts said that following last Monday’s announcement of the India–US trade deal, the joint statement on the interim trade pact is likely to provide greater clarity to domestic institutional investors, foreign institutional investors, and retail participants. They added that the interim agreement is expected to support export-focused sectors such as automobiles, IT, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, defence, textiles, gems and jewellery, and apparel. Experts also noted that the deal could help strengthen the Indian rupee against major global currencies, including the US dollar, a key factor in attracting foreign investors back to Indian markets.

2] Inflation data

Investors will keep a close track on the retail inflation figures scheduled for February 12, followed by the WPI inflation and foreign exchange reserves data due on February 13, which will be one of the driving factors of the Indian stock market next week.

3] Q3 results 2026

The markets will enter into the fifth week of the December quarter of the FY26 earnings season. BSE, HUL, Aurobindo Pharma, Apollo Hospitals, Titan Company and Mahindra & Mahindra, are some of the companies to declare earnings next week.

4] Gold and silver rates

Gold prices bounced back on Friday and were on track to post a weekly gain, supported by bargain buying, a mildly weaker dollar, and persistent worries surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations in Oman. Silver also staged a recovery after slipping to a one-and-a-half-month low.

Spot gold jumped 3.9% to $4,954.92 per ounce, recovering losses after a volatile Asian session that followed a 3.9% fall on Thursday. The precious metal was heading for a weekly rise of around 2%.

Meanwhile, spot silver surged 8.6% to $77.33 an ounce after falling below $65 earlier in the session. Despite the rebound, silver remained set for a weekly decline of more than 8.7%, extending losses from the previous week.

According to Ponmudi of Enrich Money, both gold and silver prices are attempting to stabilise following last week’s sharp sell-off and the medium- to long-term bullish structure remains firmly intact. The recent correction helped unwind excess leverage built during January’s rally.

5] FIIs inflows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities on February 6, purchasing shares worth ₹1,951 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers to the tune of ₹1,265 crore, as per provisional exchange data.

During the session, DIIs bought equities worth ₹13,216 crore and sold ₹14,481 crore. Meanwhile, FIIs recorded purchases of ₹16,719 crore against sales of ₹14,768 crore.

On a year-to-date basis, FIIs have offloaded shares worth ₹37,997 crore on a net basis, whereas DIIs have made net investments of ₹72,107 crore.

“There has been a discernible change in FII flows in February, so far. In February, through the 6th, FIIs were net equity buyers to the tune of ₹2645 crores. In the last four trading sessions, FIIs were net buyers in three sessions. An important factor that changed the market sentiment was the appreciation in the rupee from a record low of 91.72 to 90.30 to the dollar. Even though the rupee further weakened to around 90.70 by the close on February 6th, INR is expected to stabilise and gradually appreciate to below 90 to the dollar by the end of March 2026. This has the potential to trigger more FII inflows into India. However, a lot will depend on how the AI trade pans out,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Technical Outlook for next week

Nifty 50

According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, the index is likely to consolidate with a positive bias as long as it holds above the 25,400 level.

“A breakdown below this mark could lead to a gap-fill move toward the 25,100 zone. On the upside, a decisive breakout above 26,000 may trigger the next leg of the rally toward the record high area around 26,400,” Mishra said.

Bank Nifty

On the Bank Nifty outlook, he added, that the banking index continues to trade with a positive bias after its strong rally toward record highs.

“A sustained move above 60,500 could accelerate gains toward 61,500. On the downside, the 59,000–59,500 zone is expected to act as a key support band,” he said.

Sensex

On the Sensex outlook, Ponmudi of Enrich Money said that the index has been moving through a healthy consolidation phase after marking recent peaks.

“The index is currently holding above the 50-day EMA at 83,576 and the 100-day EMA at 83,395. Immediate support is placed at 83,000–83,300, with a stronger support zone lying at 82,500–82,800. Resistance is visible near 84,000–84,500, which represents prior highs. Large-cap heavyweights are likely to continue attracting long-term interest, and near-term momentum favours gradual upside unless global headwinds intensify significantly,” Ponmudi added.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.